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Scorpions SHT

 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:37 pm 
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Evil and Chaos wrote:
Worthy of note - if you were advancing or sustaining, then with the origin stats 70% of the time you had 3 shots (before the 2008 downgrade).

Averaging things out, it probably had an average of what, 2.5ish hits(?) on a typical advancing or sustaining action (no modifiers). It now has an average of 1.67 hits when advancing/sustaining.

So it has been downgraded in number of shots from what it originally had, and iirc not for balance concerns but for style concerns.

3x shots at 3+ would be an average of 2 hits on an advancing or sustaining action... Below its original number of expected hits (which as I said, never caused any Balance problems that I remember, Eldar lost "pulse" entirely because of style of play reasons). I guess the balance of number of hits will close as you add modifiers due to how "pulse" used to work, and I've not done the full spread of stats with doubling or cover modifiers, but my main conclusion is that when Advancing or Sustaining 3x 3+ is still worse than the original swordwind stats, stats that were "accidentally" downgraded, and were not downgraded due to concerns that they were overpowered.

The 2008 change to "Pulse" was not intended to be an upgrade or a downgrade, but to be a change to the Eldar playstyle (hopefully inspiring more use of fluid playstyles).


Food for thought.




Disclaimer- Some maths above is approximate and was marked with a (?). I have had four hours' sleep.


So are you saying that you would favour straight 3 MW shots at 2+ ?

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:45 pm 
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Quote:
Why would anyone take NetEA Fire Prisms full stop?

Falcons Advancing (30cm & 45cm ranges) - 5.6 hits or 4 hits
Fire Prisms Advancing (60cm range) - 4.16 hits with Lance

Falcons Doubling (30cm and 45cm ranges) - 3.5 hits or 2.7 hits
Fire Prisms Doubling (60cm range) - 3.3 hits with Lance


Pros: More hits when outside of 30cm range, 15cm greater basic range, and has Lance.
Cons: Less hits when inside 30cm range, more expensive, worse FF.


Maybe a tad overpriced, but not useless I'd say - they do have a different role to Falcons.

You could put "doesn't look 20 years old" into the Pro column if you wanted, or "doesn't look like today's newfangled crap" into the con column if you want, depending on your flavour of nerd.


Quote:
So are you saying that you would favour straight 3 MW shots at 2+ ?

I've no firm opinion at the moment, just starting by examining the stats.

What those seem to say is that an upgrade to 3x 3+ (when Advancing or Sustaining) is still less powerful than the pre-2008 stats (which, as I've noted, had no associated balance concerns that I can remember ever encountering).

Could someone run the numbers for Doubling?
Feel free to check my figures too - as noted some were approx.

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Last edited by Evil and Chaos on Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 1:56 pm 
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Off Topic, but
Evil and Chaos wrote:
You could put "doesn't look 20 years old" into the Pro column if you wanted
I'd love to look 20 years old again :-[


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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:21 pm 
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Evil and Chaos wrote:
Could someone run the numbers for Doubling?


Expected number of hits, old Pulse
Code:
Advance, Sustained Fire       2.11
Double, Advance vs Cover      1.41 
Double vs Cover               0.88


Expected number of hits, 2x2+
Code:
Advance, Sustained Fire       1.67
Double, Advance vs Cover      1.33 
Double vs Cover               1



Expected number of hits, 3x3+
Code:
Sustained Fire                2.5
Advance, Sustained vs Cover   2
Double, Advance vs Cover      1.5 
Double vs Cover               1


Expected number of hits, 3x2+
Code:
Advance, Sustained Fire       2.5
Double, Advance vs Cover      2 
Double vs Cover               1.5


I'm a bit unsure about the old Pulse calculations, but I got the same results even when I used two ways of thinking about it. First is: 5/6 + (5/6)^2 + (5/6)^3. Second is: 5/6 * 1/6 + (5/6)^2 * 1/6 * 2 + (5/6)^3 * 3. They both give the same number of expected hits (exactly).


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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:22 pm 
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If we want to pick the one closest to the old version, I think Advance is the case to look at - the problem with old Pulse was that Sustained Fire was too good and Double too weak, wasn't it?


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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:43 pm 
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Quote:
the problem with old Pulse was that Sustained Fire was too good and Double too weak, wasn't it?

Pretty much yes, though this problem didn't really appear on the Scorpion because it started at a basic 2+ to hit (sustain couldn't make it any better).



Thanks for running the numbers Ulrik - it's good to have facts in a debate like this to add to the opinions, and I'm far too tired to have done them myself. :-)


So according to Ulrik's numbers, 3x3+ is probably the closest in number of hits to the Swordwind stats?
The only real discrepancy is the Sustain Fire against a target in the open stat, which gains 0.39 hits (too scary?).
Everything else falls within 0.15 hits, which is pretty close considering the difference in shooting systems.

I think 3x3+ might be a good alternative stat - returning pretty close to the original Swordwind hit stats, and not having to change the price of the unit or move the unit further away from its original stats (by extending the range or upping the armour, etc). I've played against the EUK 75cm Scorpions a number of times and didn't fear 'em really (As Tim noted, the terrain tends to limit how much you can use that 15cm range gain).

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 2:57 pm 
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One other thing to be aware of, the distribution of odds shift radically between old pulse and 3x3+:

Code:
          Old     3x3+
0 hits  16,67%   3,70%
1 hit   13,89%  22,22%
2 hits  11,57%  44,44%
3 hits  57,87%  29,63%

       100,00% 100,00%


There was a higher risk of missing completely, but if you hit, you often got 3 hits. Now the odds of no hits is just 3%, but the most likely outcome is 2 hits.


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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:00 pm 
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At this point, I think that it's worth asking ourselves what the problem (if any) is with the Scorpion.

From the opening post:

LordotMilk wrote:
I understand there is a general agreement that the NetEA Scorpion is slightly underperforming.


If it is the case that the Scorpion is under performing, and I haven't made my mind up myself, as I see arguments for change, and for leaving it the same, in what way is it under performing? I would like to see more discussion regarding what we, as Eldar players, feel it should be able to do on the table top, which it is currently not doing very well.

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:01 pm 
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Given the above demonstration, and my other arguments, I vote for 3xMW 3+. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:02 pm 
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Quote:
If it is the case that the Scorpion is under performing...

I agree with the position that it's underperforming.

EUK agreed with that proposition too, giving it a range increase.
Their list notes say they tested 3x shots and found it too powerful.
Presumably they tested 3x 2+ shots, not 3x 3+ shots?



Tiny Tim wrote:
At my last tournament I took 4000pts of Saim-Hann to Britcon. This list included 3 EUK Scorpions. The role for them in this list was to focus on smaller formations with their MW shots hopefully killing two stands a turn and breaking the target formation. Now this didn’t always work, rolling 1’s & 2’s, failed activations etc. but the biggest thing that I found as a problem were the rules affecting pop-up attacks and units hiding behind cover. I found it very difficult to draw a line of sight to the units that I wanted to hit.

IIRC I voiced as a thought when the EUK update came out that the range extension might not actually have much practical effect due to terrain. Can't find the release thread on TC though.

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Last edited by Evil and Chaos on Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:14 pm 
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As i was asked for it:

FW stated in their 6th edition update pdf-file:
Quote:
SUPER-HEAVY SKIMMERS
Super-heavy Skimmers move as normal Skimmers in terms of speed, and conform to all the listed rules for Skimmers found on page 83 of the Warhammer 40,000 rulebook.


So any Eldar EoV would have the same speed as, for example, a Falcon.

Oh and taking the Shadowsword's Volcano Cannon as a guide we would have:

Volcano Cannon
90cm MW2+ TK(D3)

Pulsar
60cm 2x MW3+ TK(D3)

Twin-linked Pulsar
60cm 2 x MW2+ TK(D3)

Phantom Titan Pulsar
90cm 4 x MW2+ TK(D3)

Which is abit off as Wh40k's "Titan-killer" weapons deal out the same damage to WEs. But the Phantom Titan Pulsar has a better Armourpiercing value which bestowes a bonus on the Vehicle Damage Table.
More representative stats might be these:

Pulsar
60cm 2x MW3+ TK(1)

Twin-linked Pulsar
60cm 2 x MW2+ TK(1)

Phantom Titan Pulsar
90cm 4 x MW3+ TK(D3)

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:32 pm 
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BlackLegion wrote:
Phantom Titan Pulsar - 90cm 4 x MW3+ TK(D3)

Thanks BL, that would make an interesting stat for a Phantom & I'd consider playing with a dual armed Pulsar Phantom again.

But that's another thread ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 3:56 pm 
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BlackLegion wrote:
Phantom Titan Pulsar
90cm 4 x MW3+ TK(D3)


A Phantom with 8 Volcano Cannons :o


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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:17 pm 
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Which are -1 to hit. Volcano Cannon is 90cm MW2+ TK(D3).

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 Post subject: Re: Scorpions SHT
PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2012 4:27 pm 
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4x shots on each arm plus TKd3 would be a huge upgrade from the original stats.

Granting Tkd3 to the existing 4x (total) shots would be interesting though.

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