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[Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and BL

 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Wed Oct 19, 2011 10:04 pm 
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Simulated Knave wrote:
I always assumed Stealers in Space Hulk were benefiting from the close confines of the Hulk providing cover and limiting the Terminators' engagement range, and that their abilities were thus not entirely representative.


Stealers were an unholy terror in 2nd ed 40k too. WS6 high I meant something in those days.

Perhaps not enough to guarantee a kill on a terminator, but going by the stats I remember they'd force something like 3 2 6+ saves on a 2D6 on average if they charged, giving a good chance of a dead termi. And like in Space Hulk the sergeants power sword gave him a fighting chance.


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:48 am 
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Evil and Chaos wrote:
Spawning's dumb.


Concur!


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 10:51 am 
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stompzilla wrote:
Evil and Chaos wrote:
Spawning's dumb.


Concur!

I don't think were anywhere near Special Rules debating! LOL ;D :D

But if we were....Spawning is cool, everyone's doing ::)


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:34 am 
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Special rules (in this case, spawning, but I guess also differing versions of synapse and tunnelling etc) has a direct effect on what a units stats should be.

Talking a out unit stats in a vacume is silly.


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:01 pm 
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MikeT wrote:
Special rules (in this case, spawning, but I guess also differing versions of synapse and tunnelling etc) has a direct effect on what a units stats should be.

Talking a out unit stats in a vacume is silly.

I agree. That's why I would have started with the Special Rules, lol. But you can assume the SR we already have would be a good baseline to try. Dave already said 1/2 Gaunt rule will be thrown out so that helps, plus I'm sure there will be a Awesome Spawning rule and some sort of Synapse thingy.


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:06 pm 
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Another week so another recap:

Lictors

Code:
LV   20cm   5+   3+   6+   First Strike, Infiltrator, Invulnerable Save, Scout, Teleport
Flesh Hooks   (15cm)  Small Arms   -
Lictor Talons   (base contact)   Assault Weapons   Sniper


While their CC is getting a reduction as per 9.2.1 the above stats lend the Lictor a greater move and FS FF (my notion being that even when they're being hunted they can still surprise their hunters). All in all that makes for a much larger threatened area and makes it easier for them to get into an engagement.

While the note on them only contesting might be fluffy I don't want scenario special rules being introduced in a unit datasheet. When the time comes to talk about the special rules we can bring this back up if people want.

Genestealers

Code:
INF   20cm   6+   2+   -   Infiltrators, Scouts
Rending Claws   (base contact)   Assault Weapons   First Strike


These are the stats that Zombo and I compromised on and the ones that Jaldon tested with his group in the spring and early summer of this year. They have somewhere between 10-15 playtests in my group and a similar number from Jaldon.

My intent with them is to reduce the variance you'd normally get with 2@CC4+. Only using averages doesn't provide the full picture. Yes, on average you'll get 6 hits with 6 Genestealers with 2@CC4+ and 5 hits with 1@CC2+. However, nearly 33% of the time you'll be getting 4 or less, or 8 or more hits with 2@CC4+. That's what I'm looking to fix and make easier to balance. With 1@CC2+ you'll likely to get between 2-6 hits nearly 100% time and 4-6 hits 67% of the time. For those interested in the math, take a look at this excel file.

On the arguments that they never get into close combat/break even if they win, I went through all my battle reports (they had 2@CC4+ and 1@CC3+ before Zombo and I sent the compromised stats to Jaldon) and found the following:

Code:
6 stealers with 2 BM engage 4 bikes, 0:3, one bike breaks
11 stealers engage 9 bikes, 2:4, bikes break
8 stealers with 2 BM engage 5 robots with 1 BM, 2:3, one robot breaks
6 stealers engage 10 squats with BMs, 3:3, stealers win but break due to losses
7 stealers with 1 bm engage 4 destructors, 0:3, stealers break
6 stealers with 3 BM engage 4 scouts, 1:1, next round scouts wiped out
8 stealers engage 4 scouts, 4:1, rest of stealers hacked down
4 stealers with 2 BM engage feral, 1 crit, got to use his FF and wipe them out
5 stealers engage 3 defilers with 2bm, 4:2, stealers win but last one breaks
3 stealers with BM engage guardians, 1:0, stealers wiped out
8 Stealers engage 7 chaos marines with 5 BMs, 4:2, stealers win but break due to losses
4 stealers with 2 BM engage mech coy, 4:2, stealers wiped out
5 stealers engage regimental hq with 1 BM, 5:3, stealers wiped out
6 stealers engage 4 sentinels and wipe them out
7 stealers with BMs engage guardians with support platforms and a wraithguard, 5:3, stealers win but break
8 stealers engage a phalanx, 6:0, stealers wiped out
8 stealers engage Pylon and destroy it
5 stealers with BMs engage 7 chaos marines with 1 BM, stealers wiped marines left with 2 stands and break
6 stealers engage tactical detachment, 0:6, stealers wiped
3 stealers with BM engage tactical detachment, 3:2, stealers wiped
7 stealers engage 6 rough riders with 2BM, 0:1, 3 rough riders break
5 stealers with three BM engage storm troopers with valks, 2:5, one stealer breaks, the storm troopers break due to losses
5 stealers with BMs engage regimental HQ with 1 BM, 3:3, stealers hacked down
4 stealers with 3bms engage 3 sentinels, 1:2 (commissar powerfoot!), stealers win but break
4 stealers with 3bms engage 17 guardsmen, 4:3, stealers wiped out
6 stealers with 4bms engage 3 scouts and 2 rhinos with 2bms, 1:2, 1 scout breaks and stealers break due to BMs
8 stealers engage 3 devastators with rhinos with 1BM, 3:1, 3 devastators break
4 stealers with 3bms engage 3 broken devastators and wipe them out
1 stealer engages a marine SC, he dies
4 stealers with 2bms engage a scout detachment, 0:3, scouts wiped
7 stealers with 3bms engage 5 speeders and a scout detachment, 3:3, broodlord breaks
6 stealers with a bm engage a tactical detachment, 2:2, marines break
8 stealers with 3 bms engage 8 chaos marines, 4:5, marines wiped but stealers break
7 stealers engage 12 chaos marines with BMs, 5 stealer hits but marines make all saves, stealers wiped
3 stealers engage with 1bm engage a retinue, 2:2, stealers wiped
8 stealers engage sentinels, 3:2, sentinels wiped out
8 stealers engage regimental hq, stealers win but break
7 stealers with 1 BM engage Warhounds, 1 stealer breaks
1 stealer enagages Warhounds, stealer killed
8 stealers engage a IG coy in cover, stealers fail to hit and are wiped out

40 engagments by the stealers, 20 wins (8 where they break), 20 losses (2 where enemy breaks)


That includes even the last ditch efforts by 1-4 stealers that attribute to 8 of their losses and only 3 of their wins (17:12). We've seen them get into CC, so saying that they never get into CC tends to jibe with our experience. However, if people really are having trouble getting them into CC, something battle reports would help illustrate, then I think that's a problem better addressed by a point reduction.

To tie all that in with my first point, what I'm trying to reduce are instances (the 33% of the time) where they're not scoring many hits, like the above battles with the Destructors, Tacticals, Warrior Phalanx and IG company for example.

Broodlord

Code:
CH   n/a   n/a   n/a   n/a   Leader, Inspiring, Invulnerable Save
Rending Claws and Talons   (base contact)   Assault Weapons   Extra Attack (+1), First Strike


The only change from 9.2.1 is to remove the Sniper from the EA. This is what Zombo and I compromised on when we sent the stats to Jaldon and what he agreed with as well. With the Stealers CC going to 2 I think the attacks of a Broodlord are abstracted enough with just a single EA at 2.

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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:29 pm 
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Halving the attacks of lictors makes them entirely pointless to take. By all means reduce them, but do it slowly, not radically. Go to 2x4+ or 1x2+.

How will a points reduction help get genestealers into CC?

I thought the broodlord was supposed to have MW?

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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:32 pm 
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Just note that my quick math disagrees with "2+CC gives 4-6 hits 67% of the time". Plotting in (5/6)^6 + ((5/6)^5*1/6)*6 gives 74% chance of getting 5 or 6 hits.

The results agree (2+CC is more stable than 2x4+), and I'm in favor of that.


Last edited by Ulrik on Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:34 pm 
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zombocom wrote:
I thought the broodlord was supposed to have MW?


Won't MW on the broodlord be useless a lot of the time? With so many first strike hits his odds of actually getting to use it is pretty low, unless it's a first strike MW.


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:35 pm 
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It was supposed to be FS MW.

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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:37 pm 
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2+ FS MW, Inspiring. Yikes.


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:39 pm 
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Nobody takes broodlords at the moment, and I agreed to the 2+ CC on the grounds that the increase in broodlord abilities would balance out the drop in formation abilities.

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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:49 pm 
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Looking at what we sent to Jaldon and what was sent back there was never MW on the Broodlord's extra attack. I didn't find anything in our e-mails about MW but there was talk of Sniper because they had it in 9.2.1.

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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 4:56 pm 
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I'm not sure if 2+ is actually a downgrade for stealers. Given that they're an elite CC formation, they should be expected to win with both 2+ and 2x4+. If that holds true, 2+ is better, as what will kill them is below-average rolling - which you reduce the odds of if you go with 2+.


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 Post subject: Re: [Xeno-Biostatistics] Independent Vanguard - Ls, GSs and
PostPosted: Tue Oct 25, 2011 5:10 pm 
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Quote:
what will kill them is below-average rolling - which you reduce the odds of if you go with 2+.

2+ will on average achieve less hits than 2x 4+.

6 stealers will generate 6 hits with 2x 4+.
6 stealers will generate 5 hits with 2+.

Sure there are some outliers in terms of probability, but there's no denying that going to 2+ represents a 17% downgrade in average number of hits generated per unit.

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