kingy109 wrote:
Before you spend a lot of time on a simulation, I would like to revisit your Reaver/Warlord comparison as I'm afraid I don't get it. As far as I can see, Carapace hits causing loss of void shields on Warlords are going to be rare and due to scattering shots aimed at the rear reactor rather than a regular event the opponent will be looking to achieve.
From the side and rear of a Reaver there are already tempting Reactor locations offering a good chance of an outright kill that would always be preferred to a Carapace location.
Okay, first, the Reaver/Warlord comparison is made for a couple reasons.
First, the warlord is (based on point value) a much more robust titan. To be specific, a Reaver costs 60% of what a warlord costs BEFORE you start adding weapons. Since the Warlord carries a larger number of hard points and can carry heavier weapons, it is actually capable of a much higher point value count. Thus the point to point ratio should remain .6:1 or lower.
This means that the reaver should only be able to withstand 60% of what a warlord should.
However when you look at the reaver you notice some things.
1. The Reaver has 67% of the shields that the Warlord has.
2. The Reaver has 75% of the weapons mounts
3. The Reaver has the same damage tables as the Warlord (and thus has the same survivability in terms of being able to take a hit)
Now, since it has less shields (4 instead of the 6 used by the Warlord) it will statistically only be able to raise 2 shields for every 3 that the warlord raises (Void shields come back up on a 4+ roll, so it's a flat 50% per shield to restore one, so out of 6 dice 3 will come up for a war lord each round, and 2 out of 4 for a reaver) So it has the ability to regenerate 67% (2/3) as many shields as a warlord over time)
These alone show that while the reaver is weaker than the warlord, that points-wise they already give a better than .6:1 cost to benefit ratio. Bottom line is that the Reaver is a bargain already.
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In terms of my logic:
From the front, its a wash, no Carapace on either. The lack of a reactor on a Reaver has always been a benefit, but that's not the point you are trying to make.
Correct
The reactor hit is obviously a better hit since it drops the void shields as well as having an excellent chance that the titan will explode. But the reactor on a reaver is low to the ground in terms of the model, meaning it's got a lot better chance to use over to it's advantage to keep the reactor from being targeted. Sometimes the prime hit isn't there to be taken. But that Carapace is always nice and high up there. Yeah it's got a good save on the warlord, but it's still got a pretty good chance to kill the titan and make it go BOOM (killing nearby units)
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From the side, I could target the Carapace on a Warlord - but as its a 1+ save I'm much more likely to go for the Head! Why? Well, better chance of a kill with the same armour and as void shields are already down, possibly preventing future orders is in my opinion more debilitating than preventing it getting some Void Shields back. In summary, its pretty unlikely to ever get a Carapace hit here, even if it is a theoretical option.
Okay, let's talk about this strategy for a second. The goal of any hit is to get as much out of that hit as possible. If you target the head, there's a problem. When you target you MUST roll the two targeting dice (labled up down left right and blanks) and apply the result to determine where it hits).
Targeting the head from the front is fine, but targeting it from the side, well, you're most likely to stay within the 9 hit locations in that block of 3 by 3. And of those, you have 3 that are blanks, which result in misses if you land on them. that creates a base minimum of 33% chance of a miss, whereas a CBM shot gets you a chance at a weapon flashback, a chance at a carapace hit, and a head shot and mostly eliminate all chances of the hit turning into a miss.
Now, concerning armor saves. One thing to remember about void shields is that they block all shots without going down unless they have a -1 or greater save modifier. So any weapon targeted on a titan is going to be a -2 or better, and thus any save is going to go down by 2 as well, that 1+ carapace save is now a 3+ on average, and worse for most heavy titan class weapons.
Now, that said let's examine the head hit vs the carapace hit in terms of efficacy since they're both 1+ save locations.
Head.
1-2 Damaged. CAF halved and roll 4+ to give the titan orders.
3 Crippled. CAF halved for the rest of the game.
4 Crippled. Same as 1-2, for the rest of the game.
5-6 Destroyed and the titan falls.
So here it's a choice between
1. a 33% chance of a repairable event and 4+ activation
2. a 16% chance of CAF halved (which cannot be repaired)
3. a 16% chance of both (which cannot be repaired)
or
4. a 33% chance of killing the titan on the spot, but no explosion.
As compared to a carapace hit which is as follows.
1-2. The void shield generators are shut down and the shields may not be used until repaired.
3-4. The Titan’s void shield generators are shut down and the shields may not be used any further in the game.
5. The shields are in danger of overloading and you must shut them down before they explode. Roll a D6. On 5-6 the shields are safely shut down, on 1-4 they explode as 6 (below):
6. The Titan’s void shields overload and explode. The Titan is destroyed but remains standing. Any models within 2D6 cm are automatically hit at 0 TSM.
which yields
1. A 33% chance of void shields down but repairable.
2. A 33% chance of void shields out for the game.
3. A 16% chance killing the shields, plus an extra 67% chance of killing the titan and doing hits to all targets in 2-12 cm.
4. A 16% chance for a flat outright kill and explosion as in #3.
That means you have a base 25% chance of killing a titan with a carapace hit but with the added bonus of potentially killing anything within 12 cm radius of it. That's a potential 24 cm diameter pieplate.
Yes, a head hit is a better single kill, but a carapace hit has the potential for more collateral damage to enemy troops.
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The Reaver of course has a big tempting 3+ save Reactor on the side - which makes it much more vulnerable than a Warlord side on - why target anything else?? No point adding a Carapace location to the Reaver side profile as I'm going to ignore it.
I agree, a reactor hit IS a great place to hit, not only can you knock out the void shields till it's repaired, but you have a 33 percent chance for outright reactor explodes, and a chance for explosion on a "crippled" roll too. By far a good hit, IF your targeting dice don't turn the hit into a miss.
However, why you might target anything else? Well, for one, the reactor on reavers is low to the ground, It's far more likely to be obscured by cover than the reactor on a warlord. Whereas the carapace on a reaver would be high, and always visible, and would occupy 3 hit boxes (the same hit boxes as the carapace weapon)
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From the rear, again I could target the Carapace on a Warlord but I'm always going to go for the Reactor - less armour, bigger bang! Might get an accidental Carapace hit but again would never specifically target here.
Again, I agree, the target of opportunity would be the reactor, unless covered by cover. But again I point out that the reactor may well be obscured due to the low profile and thus not a viable target.
There's nothing wrong with having a secondary target that might not be as good as a target as the reactor, but a better one than a simple weapon hit.
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Since the Reaver has a 4+ save reactor from the rear, again, I'm going to ignore any Carapace location you put on there.
What would a change achieve in practical game terms? Modify some hit locations to the Reaver that no-one is going to aim at?
As I noted above, prime targets are not always available, sometimes you have to settle for a secondary target. Let's say the reactor is obscured by a piece if cover, but the carapace is open for a hit, you could then choose between a carapace weapon hit, an arm weapon, or a carapace hit? I'd go for the carapace because at least it has a better chance to kill the titan than a weapon hit would.