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USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!

 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:20 pm 
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Quote: (madd0ct0r @ 04 Jan. 2009, 22:09 )

you lot are all really depressing.

I'm in the UK, and so GW. Buisness as usual, at least in the world of little model men.

Let us know if you're selling...
I suspect DRM/Iron Crown/Pendraken are not complaining.

I won't be surprised if we see $2/pound relatively soon.





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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:49 am 
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Having spent 2007/early 08 in England I'm glad to see the USD making a return on the British Pound. I felt like I had been held in a stick up every time I exchanged money while in Britain.  :sad:

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:57 am 
Jeez. I really should buy that Gorgon soon.


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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:18 pm 
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Quote: (Carrington @ 02 Jan. 2009, 22:35 )

Quote: (Moscovian @ 02 Jan. 2009, 20:13 )

Eventually, however, investors will return to reevaluating the fundamentals behind the US$.


Translate: People are going to realize that the U.S. is bankrupt and won't be able to drop the dollar fast enough.  It'll be like a three legged cat trying to bury a turd on a marble floor.

I wasn't going to put so fine a point on it...

And yes... when it breaks, it breaks hard, though I'd guess the thing is that the US$ has tough skin -- there's a lot of central banks still invested in the US$ as a reserve currency.

Yep.  Historically, the US was the last to go off the gold standard because most of the western world, post WWII, went to an indirect gold standard.  They pegged their currency to the dollar, which remained on the gold standard.  The US Dollar has remained the world standard for currency even though the currencies eventually started to float and the US left the gold standard as well.  It is and will remain "tough skinned" simply by virtue of its position.

There's not likely to be a major currency problem with the dollar and the US, though heavily in debt, doesn't even have the capability to cause problems all by its lonesome.  Too many countries, too many industries and too many exchanges use the dollar for it to tank completely.  The volume of dollar-evaluated assets is so huge that it just can't happen.  Even if things went completely to the toilet, just the barter value of commodities would keep the dollar viable.

If it does tank past that point, you're going to have a lot more problems than the value of your retirement account or your oil futures.  You'd better have a large stockpile of food and/or ammo.


Incidentally, contrary to popular opinion, both the US annual deficit and the national debt is smaller as a portion of GNP/GDP than many industrialized nations.  Japan is actually the leader in both categories by a wide margin among so-called "first world" nations.  The US isn't any closer to being bankrupt in that respect than the average of the G8.

That's not to say we shouldn't work on cleaning it up.  I'm a huge proponent of doing so.  I was just responding to the implication that it's primarily the US running on debt and dragging everyone else along.

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:40 pm 
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Hmmm... I'm unfamiiar with those debt-to-GDP ratios.  My understanding is the U.S. is near the top of the list if not the worst.  It certainly is the worst in raw dollars.  I think most people forget that the recent FannieMae FreddieMac bailout is "off the books" as is the money owed to Social Security and Medicare.  That's four sets of accounting books. :oo:

I'm not suggesting the U.S. is dragging everyone down because of its national debt.  I am making a gloomy prediction that it will happen in the future, however.  It's been estimated that in 15 years, 100% of the U.S. budget will be taken up by payments to the national debt, Social Security, Federal Retirement Programs, Medicare and Medicaid.  The most recent budget passed is a good indicator that the debt-spending is continuing and worsening.

You add that to the mix of global economic instability (every nation is having a crisis of some type it seems), the massive inflationary efforts of the Feds, the bailouts, and eventually a 'safe haven' will emerge that will NOT be T-Bills.  You drop a Arch Duke Ferdinand incident into the mix of all of this and you have the makings of a giant Charlie-Foxtrot.  I hope and pray I am wrong but I think your salt-n-ammo suggestions might be good ones.  At the very least start stocking up on canned goods when you see a good deal.

But keep an eye on this thread.  My biggest wish for 2009 is for everyone to make fun of me in December and tell me what a paranoid jerk I am when everything doesn't collapse.

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:53 pm 
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Quote: (nealhunt @ 05 Jan. 2009, 11:18 )

Quote: (Carrington @ 02 Jan. 2009, 22:35 )

Quote: (Moscovian @ 02 Jan. 2009, 20:13 )

Eventually, however, investors will return to reevaluating the fundamentals behind the US$.


Translate: People are going to realize that the U.S. is bankrupt and won't be able to drop the dollar fast enough.  It'll be like a three legged cat trying to bury a turd on a marble floor.

I wasn't going to put so fine a point on it...

And yes... when it breaks, it breaks hard, though I'd guess the thing is that the US$ has tough skin -- there's a lot of central banks still invested in the US$ as a reserve currency.

Yep.  Historically, the US was the last to go off the gold standard because most of the western world, post WWII, went to an indirect gold standard.  

Actually I think the US went off the gold standard pre-WWII. Somewhere in the back of my mind I seem to recall that it happened when FDR was president.

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:06 pm 
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FDR confiscated gold.  Then the Bretton Woods agreement had everyone setting their markets to the USD during WWII.  Then there was Bretton Woods II (Electric Boogaloo) and eventually we went off of it completely.

EDIT: I just looked it up- turns out the UK and US suspended the gold standard during WWII but then resumed it with Bretton Woods.  Heh, learned something new today. :cool:




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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:12 pm 
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I know he confiscated gold, but I'm almost positive he took us off the gold standard to help recover from The Depression.

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:13 pm 
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See above - I tried editing it time but somebody had to be zippy and respond quicker than I could hit ENTER. :))

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:22 pm 
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Oh, so I see.  :vD

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:18 pm 
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Nixon removed the US from the gold standard again in '71 IIRC. The Federal Reserve (which is neither) is pretty much a print-on-demand service these days... but I really don't want this to devolve into a history/politics discussion, so I'll be shutting up now.  :shutup:

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 8:17 pm 
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Mosc:  The GDP/GNP ratios are extremely important.  They're the equivalent of "to-income" ratios that lenders use - debt-to-income and payments-to-income.  The former is raw ability to pay and the latter is a measure of the ability to pay even if you do something stupid.  The US has deficit and debt equal to almost the entire EU (maybe even a touch more), but it also has income equal to almost the entire EU so it's a wash.  I agree the "future obligations" debts, like SS and Medicare/aid, are insane but again, every industrialized nation is facing the same issue so that remains comparable.

I'm not saying the US is in good shape, just that it's not appreciably worse than any economy that matters.  The entire "first world" is playing the same dangerous game.

To keep this roughly on target, I think that means there's not likely to be an extreme currency devaluation among any of the developed countries with respect to each other.  If one country really tanks, the domino effect is likely to drop other currencies back to levels in the same ballpark within a reasonable time frame.

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 10:39 pm 
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And regardless ... I just made an E/W order !!!  :laugh:  :vD  8v)

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 Post subject: USD vs. GBP - $$$ ?!?!
PostPosted: Mon Jan 05, 2009 10:46 pm 
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Quote: (Legion 4 @ 05 Jan. 2009, 21:39 )

And regardless ... I just made an E/W order !!!  :laugh:  :vD  8v)

Eeehxcellent! I received note that my E/W order shipped out today - Thanks to Tom.  :D

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