(Markconz @ Oct. 09 2007,01:07)
QUOTE
Ok just checking what figures I extrapolated from current figures and annual growth rates (about 13% from 2005-2006, but was that a good year or a bad year?) we have...
2006: 215 million, SG at 5% (or less) = 10.8 million.
1996: 50-60 million, Epic at 9 percent = 5 million.
So you may be right... of course those numbers may be way off also, so poke fun at them if you like!
(Edit - ok that may actually be an ok estimate, 1997 GW total sales 58.4 million).
Which leads to the interesting question of how do Epic sales stack up against the rest of the SG franchise, and what proportion of players are also using the secondary market.
Thats a pretty good approximation, but you let one important piece of data out. THe figures I always cite are for the US ONLY. The 5% from Jervis is WORLDWIDE. So the even if the old US values alone were "par" with current SG sales worldwide, thats means epic sold orders of magnitude more than now, since we would have to add epic sales of UK, Europe, Canada and Australia from back then. Unfortunately I have absolutely no information on the sales from these other markets, nor do I know how they were relative to the US (for all I know US could have been the best epic market or the worst, just don't know for sure).
The truth is, even is we were extremely conservative and said that the US sales represented an average that could mean when adding all the other "theatres" of sale epic could have reasonably produced close to 20% of all GW gross sales. That would put epic around 10-12 million. back then. Pretty respectable. Also note SG's 5% is TOTAL SG games sales. I dont know the breakdown, but I "think" I remember reading Jervis infered that at its peak epic may have accounted to close to half (of course no hard data on that). Which, if we use your numbers means epic brought in maybe 2.5 million versus a potential (and VERY conservative) estimate of 10-12 million back in 1996. Thats a 4-5 to 1 ratio.
While no one has ever gotten solid numbers on actual players for any game (let alone GW games) the only data left to extrapolate this is sales. Mainly because if you selling it, someone is buying it (logically... ). Of course you could argue that people like us (ESPECIALLY ME!! 
), that buy disproportionate amounts may inflate the sales number without increasing the actual player count. But using standard guassian distribution (bell curve) and eliminating the extremes (those who buy too much or too little per person), one could only conclude that based on the relative sales of the two eras the player base was on average 4 times larger than it is now (well was at SG's peak, if we do it on the basis of "this moment" then its even higher).
This conclusion does not only validate the sales data, but all anecdotal perceptions as well as retailer and distribution experience.
Now this one fascinating extrapolation, that your numbers bring to the fore, and may possibly answer that magic question....
...is epic....profitable...?
I would have to say ABSOLUTELY. Imagine if epic could "just" do the 9% it did then..NOW! According to the numbers you gave thats around 20 million dollars!!! Double the SM2 high!
Imagine if they could obtain the SM2 era peak around 20%!!! Thats over 40 MILLION dollars!!!!!
What saddens me greatly is the we ALL KNOW GW COULD DO IT!! No one has their resources or market presence. We all know GW could sell cow dug when marketing properly and competitively priced.
Thanks Markconz for the numbers, they actually provide a good objective bar to make good comparisons from then and now. Of course now I'm depressed since epic could be making SO MUCH MONEY!!
...but it isn't, and that damn sucks. 
Primarch
), so I learned to ask and not speculate.
