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Necron counter charge leaves pariah and a warrior out of range. Devs shoot at the Phalanx since they die easier than monos. 5 x 4+ and 4 x 3+ go as follows: 6, 4, 3, 2, 1 and 6, 4, 3, 3 resulting to a total of 6 hits. Hits are divided to two wraiths, 3 warriors and lord. One warrior and lord saves (3, 2 and 6, 3, 2 and 4) and one wraith inv saves resulting in 3 kills. Phalanx shoots back 6 times on a 4+ and Monoliths shoot back 8 times on 5+ (assuming fixed +2FF attacks on monos). Phalanx rolls 6, 6, 5, 5, 2, 1 and monos roll 6, 6, 5, 5, 3, 1, 1, 1 resulting in a total of seven hits. All marine units take one hit each. Two marines and both dreads die totaling to four casualties (5, 5, 3, 2, and 2, 1, and 2RR6). The entire Tac formation can support doing 6 x 4+, 2 x 5+, and 3 x 6+ attacks. Rolls are 6, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3 and 6, 4 and 4, 3, 3 causing four hits. They are allocated to 3 warriors and 1 wraith. Wraith and one warrior saves (5, 2, 1 and 5) making kills 5 to 4 for marines. Necrons still have outnumber (4+4 vs 5) and the Pariah is skulking in the rear rank so marines win by one before the rolls. Marine rolls 6 and 5 against the Necron 6 and 2 so Necrons lose by one and break, as does the devastators from the blasts. Wraith dies from the result leaving lord, warrior and pariah left.
Now it's Necron turn to come with their BTS Phalanx and try how tough the Marine BTS is. One brave warrior, wraiths, lord, and pariah assault into B-T-B. Marines shoot 6 overwatch shots rolling 6, 5, 5, 4, 3, 2 causing one hit to the brave warrior and two hits on wraiths. Warrior and one wraith save followed by an inv save from the other wraith (6 and 4 and 3+6). No kills but a blast marker anyway. Marines attack 6 x 4+, 1 x 5+, 3 x 6+ rolling 5, 3, 3, 2, 1, 1 and 1 and 4, 3, 2 - I can hear the people complaining about fixed rolls right about now. Wraith takes the hit and rolls 5 making the assault somewhat bust for marines (should've been 4 hits and slightly less than 2 casualties on average thanks to wraiths). Necrons attack with 8 x 3+, 5 x 4+, 2 x 5+, 1 x MW3+ and 1 x MW5+ rolling 6, 6, 5, 4, 2, 1, 1, 1 and 5, 4, 4, 3, 1 and 5, 3 and 1 and 6 totaling to 8 regular hits and one MW hit. One Rhino explodes from the MW hit and all other marines except the Chaplain take one hit each and two rhinos and razor take the rest (at this point I noticed the Hunter wasn't on the table and rolled 4 for its FF. It can't shoot infantry in overwatch so nothing was missed). Anyway, saves are 6, 4, 3, 3, 1 and 1, 1, 2 - the local emergency number - resulting to 3 dead marines and 3 dead vehicles. Thunderhawk supports with 4, 3, 3 and one immortal dies with the roll of 1.
Kills are 6 to 1 for Necrons, they have 2 to 1 outnumber (11 vs 4), marines had more blasts, and Chaplain and Pariah negate each other. The score is +8 to Necrons before the rolls (4, 4 vs 6, 3) and 6 after, killing the hunter and two marine stands leaving the chaplain alone. The Chaplain falls back followed by the 2 dev units standing 10cms from the combat and Thunderhawk gets a blast.
The result was quite a lot in favor of the Necrons through the dice. The average should've been 3 hits and 1.25 dead after the overwatch shooting. That would've taken out 2 x 3+ attacks and blasts would've been equal. Marines should've done 4 hits and slightly less than 2 kills in the assault plus 0.75 kills from support fire making it 2.75 or 4 in total. In that case Necrons should've made 6 x 3+, 5 x 4+, 2 x 5+, 1 x MW3+, 1 x MW5+ totaling to a 7.2 regular hits and one MW hit. With the way the units were positioned this would've meaned one dead Rhino from macro, 2 other tanks and 2 marines. All other factors were even so 11 - 2.75 vs 10 - 5 leaves outnumber to necrons and 2.25 kills more. So on average marines should've lost by 3.25 even after the overwatch but before the roll.
At the time I was writing this I realised that I may have forgot the -1 to hit for the marines being in cover but then I found out in the master F.A.Q. that it's never used in assaults. Kinda pointless to camp them in the forest against a Necron army that can't shoot too well.
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Gief more guns for less points!
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