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[NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
Chroma
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 5:11 pm 
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(nealhunt @ May 25 2007,16:21)
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The Shadowsords failed to hurt the Dom because they couldn't blow the Heirodules off it faster than they respawned. ?There are 3 Dules, so even with 3 hits and 3 points of damage on each, you can't get rid of them in a single volley. ?With most volleys, a Shadowsword company can't kill but 1. ?Average total damage is 5 and some of it will be wasted due to overkill when the damage dice don't work out right. ?Killing 2 is a good roll. ?The Dom with Spore has a 2/3 chance to spawn a new one. ?At that rate, it would take a SHT company 3-4 turns to have a chance to damage the dom, even with good rolls.

Not to be pedantic, but average total damage from 3 Shadowswords hitting would be 6 points of damage... that doesn't include the fact that the shots can miss on a "1" and each hit can inflict a crit on a "6".

Again, to me, this just seems to be a poor targetting choice; those first two volleys could've taken down both Hierophants, on average dice, and would've been much more effective use of the Shadowswords.

Without seeing the battlefield, it's impossible to say what kinds of LOS they had on targets, but, to me, it's shocking that, from the first turn, The Dominatrix and Hierodules were in plain sight for so long!

Lastly, A Dom and three Hierodules is over 800 points of models, it *should* be tough to take on!

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Chroma
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 5:18 pm 
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(nealhunt @ May 25 2007,16:49)
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I know there is great resistance to changing Unstoppable. ?I agree it is a major defining feature of the list. ?However, this comes up over and over as a major hurdle to balancing the list.

This is a pretty radical change and, essentially, would discard all playtesting that's already occurred.

I'm not adverse to radical change, but is "Unstoppable" really seen as that horrific? ?Tyranids certainly aren't dominating the playing field around here by any stretch of the imagination.

Yes, it requires a radically different approach to defeating the Bugs, but shouldn't that be that case when fighting the most alien threat in the 40k universe? (Sorry Necrons!)

It would, however, hinder activation, reduce the near-auto +2 assault resolution, and allow the formations to break and suffer hackdowns normally.

Okay, I want to clarify this (bolded above): Tyranids *do* suffer hackdown hits normally already. ?People do realize this, correct?

That's why when 10-12 unarmoured 'Gaunts go down in an assault, the enemy can push back the Tyranids because all that is ususally left is the 3 surviving Tyranid Warriors due to combat resolution.

I've often seen battles with a couple of lonely Tyranid Warriors stuck deep in enemy lines that can't spawn enough to protect themselves and subsequently get hammered. ?If people are playing without the normal hackdowns, I can see why they think "Unstoppable" is over the top!




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Chroma
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 5:43 pm 
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(Hena @ May 25 2007,17:38)
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If a volley from a shadowsword company does average of 6 points of damage on the 800 point swarm, that should fell two of the meatwalls. Second round kills the spawned and last. Then Tyranids might be close enough for assault, except that the Shadowswords can move away at 15cm per turn.

The problem is damage allocation with dX TK weapons... if the first hit does 1 point of damage, and the second does 3, those are still only put on the first Hierodule (the frustration of hitting with all three Shadowswords and then rolling 3 "1"s for damage is quite something to see... *laugh*), so they need to do max damage to the second Hierodule hit to take it out...

I still think the Hierophants would've been a better target.




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Evil and Chaos
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 5:55 pm 
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Hierodules should not be allowed to spawn... the only WE's that should be allowed to spawn are the 2DC burrowing Trygons :)

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Evil and Chaos
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 5:58 pm 
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(Hena @ May 25 2007,17:56)
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(Evil and Chaos @ May 25 2007,19:55)
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Hierodules should not be allowed to spawn... the only WE's that should be allowed to spawn are the 2DC burrowing Trygons :)

So why Hierodule cannot be dropped by a spore from space?

Because it makes Trygons special. :)

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Chroma
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 6:24 pm 
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(nealhunt @ May 24 2007,18:09)
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The Nid army from game 2 forward is: 1 Dominatrix, 1 Greater Synapse Node, 1 Vituperator, 1 Hive Tyrant, 1 Group of 3 Tyranid Warriors, 2 Heirophants, 2 Lictor Swarms (3 each), 32 Termies, 18 Hormies, 9 Raveners, 4 Carnifex, 4 Zoanthropes, 5 Malefactors, 3 Hierodules, 13 Mycetic Spores.

----
The Guard army consisted of: 2 Infantry Co.s with fire support and Ogryns, 1 Leman Russ with demolishers and Hydra upgrade, 1 Shadowsword Co. with Hydra upgrade, 2 Rough Rider groups, 2 formations of Storm Troopers with Valkyries, 2 Sentinel Squads, 1 Deathstrike Battery, 1 Vulture group.



Neal, can you confirm a couple of things for me?  

What was the point value of the game, what version of the Tyranid list were they using, and are the above correct army compositions?

By my calculations, using v7.4 it was:

Imperial Guard 4050 points vs Tyranids 4195 points.

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nealhunt
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 6:45 pm 
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If you're going to nitpick my generalized statistics statements, take the time to run all the numbers.  Roughly 2/3 of the time the Shadowsord company will fail to kill 2 heirodules and the average damage is actually less than 5.

Overkill is going to be far more powerful a factor than criticals  in this case because it happens far more often.

A TKd3 hit on a DC3 WE only avoids the need to allocate a second hit on a roll of "3".  Note that by the experimental rules you only roll damage to allocate hits.  You don't resolve the hits until after allocation, just like normal.  Critical hits have no effect on allocation.

1/27 chance of 1 hit or less - impossible
75/216 chance of 2 hits - 1/9 chance of double "3" - ~3.8%
125/216 chance of 3 hits - 12/27 chance of 2+ kills - ~25.7%

1.9% chance that the 2-hit combo could produce a critical that kills one that wouldn't die otherwise and 3.6% chance that a 3-hit combo would do so.

Chance for 3 Shadowswords to kill 2 DC3 WEs, with "death" critical = ~35%.  

(2% of that total would be the chances of killing 3 in a "hat trick")

Average damage for 3 hits, counting crits and overkill is 5.7.
Average damage for 2 hits, counting crits and overkill is 3.7.
Average damage for 1 hit, counting crits and overkill is 2.2.

Factoring in the above chances of various numbers of hits, the grand total average damage done by 3 Shadowswords firing at DC3 WEs, with "death" critical = 4.7.

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nealhunt
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 6:50 pm 
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(Hena @ May 25 2007,17:32)
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Never mind that with initiative 2+ and costly supreme commander re-roll isn't that often around. And since Nids lack the long range weapons (or high move of transports 30cm+) failing an activation means complete loss of action. Without supreme 1/3 of activations would fail due to BMs.

So, make them 1+ initiative.  A lot of people have wanted to do that as well.  The reason for not doing it was because they never have BMs.

That would actually improve their activation situation, making them feel more relentless.

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Chroma
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 6:53 pm 
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OoooOOoooh!  Mathy!   :D


(nealhunt @ May 25 2007,18:45)
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Factoring in the above chances of various numbers of hits, the grand total average damage done by 3 Shadowswords firing at DC3 WEs, with "death" critical = 4.7.

So, basically what you're saying is it was a bad targetting choice, just not obviously/intuitively bad.  If the Shadowswords had fired on the Hierodules, I think they could have taken them both out without too much trouble.

Hena's assessment of poor fire discipline seems to be the problem here more than just the Tyranids themselves.

I'm not disregarding the fact that the Tryanids can be tough, even for experienced opponents, but inexperience/poor choices can *really* punish you when fighting the Bugs.  Plausible/realistic?  Yes.  Fun?  Well, that's what we're working on!

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nealhunt
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 6:54 pm 
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(Chroma @ May 25 2007,18:24)
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What was the point value of the game, what version of the Tyranid list were they using, and are the above correct army compositions?

By my calculations, using v7.4 it was:

Imperial Guard 4050 points vs Tyranids 4195 points.

v7.4.  It's supposed to be 4K.  I suspect the unit count is off slightly.  The Nid count came to 4045 when I added it up.

===

Just double checked and it was 4045 again.

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Chroma
 Post subject: [NEW!] Tyranids 7.4
PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2007 6:58 pm 
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(nealhunt @ May 25 2007,18:50)
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So, make them 1+ initiative. ?A lot of people have wanted to do that as well. ?The reason for not doing it was because they never have BMs.

Honestly, I can't, even with my twisted mind, begin to imagine the wails of horror that would go up if people heard of "1+" Lictors and Genestealers!

I have never found "Unstoppable" to be over the top; tough at times, yes, scary, yes, undefeatable, no.

I would honestly recommend doing anti-Tyranid training at the 2000-2500 point level on a 4x4 board.  This would give opponents a good graps of the basics in fighting them and let them get more games in against them then starting with "mega" games.

For getting the hang of new armies, I think lower point value games are sadly overlooked.

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