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Charts for chance of loosing a stand in or outside transport

 Post subject: Charts for chance of loosing a stand in or outside transport
PostPosted: Wed Aug 05, 2020 7:24 pm 
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Hello gang!

Long time no see, hope you're all doing a good!

Quick question: Did anyone ever do a probability chart of chances of a stand to die when they are A) embarked in a transport that gets hit or B) disembarked from transport but touching it for cover?

Like for proving a point if it's beter to be embarked or disembarked when BP barrages hits your formation (depending on what army your playing with of course).

It seems this should have been done considering people passion and devotion to the game (and being right in disscussions) on this site.

Ha that been done?

Take care!

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 Post subject: Re: Charts for chance of loosing a stand in or outside trans
PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2020 2:29 pm 
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I have a table of 'expected kills per hit' for transported units, which can be compared to raw armour values in the most basic comparison:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fpL0tOP-iqXhVJFq0vL6OTJhk13V681Fs-0kOZd6NX8

However it's quite difficult to take it to the next step of showing "which is better" as there are a lot of variables affecting what you need to compare to, for example:
1. it depends which units would take the hits - each hit is not equal to the last when the units are out of their transports, as a hit would change from being a hit on a transport to a hit on infantry
2. leaving units out of transports influences whether attackers choose AP/AT, so it also depends on the attacker and what those formations do
3. leaving units out means additional weapons may be able to fire (e.g. AP)
4. template weapons will tend to get more attacks when units are out of transports
All these reasons are the crux of why it may be better to leave units inside.

That means you have to introduce multiple extra dimensions based on number of shots of each type and to hit-values, it's not just a table any more, you're modelling the whole shooting scenario (number of shots of each to-hit value and number of units that can be allocated to of each type).

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 Post subject: Re: Charts for chance of loosing a stand in or outside trans
PostPosted: Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:31 pm 
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Those are interesting charts. Some details though, all units get 6+ save within transport regardless if they have any. Also MW and TK is applied to units inside if they are involved in hitting the transport. But as you say there are other variables which affects this than what is modelled within them. Which is effectively how many hits you get in scenarios of inside and outside (AP vs AT weapon hit values, cover -1 from vehicles etc). Gets very complicated and fast.


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 Post subject: Re: Charts for chance of loosing a stand in or outside trans
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:48 am 
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Hena2 wrote:
Those are interesting charts. Some details though, all units get 6+ save within transport regardless if they have any.
I had it this way originally, but actually if hit by a MW then there is no cover save so 0 armour is valid, so I added it back. Though granted the RA transport & zero armour transported units combinations wouldn't be, since the MW would be stripping one of the transport's saves. Not sure what happens to transported unit armour if hit with sniper or crossfire actually... For the sake of completeness, consistency and potentially some edge case I hadn't considered (maybe necrons), I figured it best to leave them all in. There are other scenarios not covered either, like invulnerable saves (i.e. different second save to the first, and/or more than 2 saves).

Hena2 wrote:
Also MW and TK is applied to units inside if they are involved in hitting the transport. But as you say there are other variables which affects this than what is modelled within them. Which is effectively how many hits you get in scenarios of inside and outside (AP vs AT weapon hit values, cover -1 from vehicles etc). Gets very complicated and fast.
Yep exactly, just way too complicated. By the way, I didnt explain in the sheet but I figured that MW and TK didnt need more tables, you'd just alter the save values you'd look up. It's also usually pretty obvious which option is best against units that only have MW or TK shooting (get the inf out!). Beyond this, there's too much to consider. There are some assumptions that could be made to take it a little further fairly easily (i.e. assume the total hits is the same and distributed among transported and transport units in 1:1 or 1:2 ratio), but I don't think it's much more useful as it's rarely that simple.

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