While Astartes are neither like the USMC nor like Armored Cav regiments, their operational methods are similar. Marines actually are independent armies, capable of independent campaigns on short notice. Essentially the Imperium's '911 force'. At least that's what they are in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th edition 40k codices. Therefore, they have similar needs to Marines or Cav Regiments. While Astartes may not think in the terms of platoon, company, battalion, and regiment, those are relatively easily understood terms when you're talking about armored vehicles. Also, a Marine Chapter is roughly the size of a Regiment (but doesn't have the raw fighting power that a Regiment of Astartes would). (note: In the modern US army, 'cavalry' denotes a formation designed to be completely self-sufficient, including it's own transportation and artillery support. There's two varieties: armored cav, which uses armored vehicles for transportation and heavy weapons support; and air cav, which uses helicopters for transportation and heavy weapons support)
So, do we think that there's 30-40 total land raiders in a 'standard' Chapter, or do we believe that there are more like 50-60 Land Raiders (counting the 20 in the First Company)?
There are times when you need an armored company to break through an opponent's lines. While USMC Marines do not have the armored support to break lines that way, they have lots more airpower available (nothing says "we're going where we want" quite like a carrier battle group backing up a MEU). You say Astartes don't have any integral fighter/VTOL airpower, so that means they must have more tanks, or they are unable to break opposing lines without waiting for IG/AM support (which they are able to do alone, but it's easier with support). Note that even the Ultrasmurfs have nearly 2 'companies' of Predators. When you add the 'company' of Land Raiders in the armory, that makes a mixed 'Battalion.'
My question is, would there be more tanks in the armory? I think that there would be. After all, Devastators and Terminators can hitch a ride in Land Raiders in Epic, Templar 'Crusader squads' can hitch a ride in LRCrusaders in 40k.
Now, the US does not currently have light tanks (let's face it, Predators are lighter than Russes, which are lighter than Land Raiders), so I'm looking more at WW2 deployment patterns. How many companies of Shermans per company of medium/light tanks in a Battalion (or was it battalions per regiment)? I could assume that the dedicated LRaiders are separate from the armory 'company', and that there's only the 3-4 dets of Land raiders and roughly 8 dets of Predators (both types). That could be adequate armored support, but I'd expect to see more armor.
I have a real problem with how little artillery support there is in the fluff. 12-16 Whirlwinds is 3-4 WW dets. Each chapter has 4 battle companies (3 in Unforgiven Chapters), each one of which should be directly supported by a WW det. Then I have 4 reserve companies (usually in smaller deployments away from the Battle Companies or reinforcing the Battle companies), which also need WW support.
Same problem with Vindicators.
The lack of Whirlwinds really affects the number of Hunters. Astartes are very vulnerable to air attacks and don't have their own integral fighters for Combat Air Patrol, so need lots of SPAA. Probably 12-16 per Chapter, maybe more. Hunters and Whirlwind Hyperios are the only source of SPAA in the Marine arsenal.
While Sabers aren't in the current game, I'm sure that a few chapters have some stashed away someplace. Probably 1-4 Saber detachments (4 each) stashed in the back gathering dust.
Now, Thunderhawks are manned by Astartes. 4 Astartes, in fact. That's more than 120 Marines. It's possible that Marines do pilot fighters, but since BFG specifically states that Astartes starship crews are almost completely Chapter Serfs, with only a bare minimum of actual Astartes onboard, I'd assume that any 'Astartes' air support that's not a Thunderhawk has chapter Serfs and/or servitors onboard, in addition to a very high-end Machine Spirit. I will also point out that Marine Hunter-class(? the torpedo-armed versions) are seen by most of the Imperial Navy as being outside the writ of the Astartes. They're too capable as anti-ship vessels, and enable Chapter fleets to either stand against the Imperial Navy or successfully attack a Navy-defended system. I see the possibility that some Chapters, particularly those that don't play well with others, would acquire/build some fighters to protect the Thunderhawks. They might be tough, but they're not invulnerable. Fighters to distract the opponent's air defense fighters would be very useful, in addition to use in 'Wild Weasel' (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) missions. After all, they are listed as part of the Astartes army in Epic. I'd also point out that Astartes don't rely on IN Marauders for bombing attacks. Instead, they use Thunderhawks for both missile and bomb close air support and long-range strategic bombing, in addition to starship attack. (I'd really like to introduce the Missile and Bomb versions of the Thunderhawk for play in Epic)
As regards the VTOLs, the Astartes also use Land Speeder Tempests, which are easily as capable as a Vulture.
_________________ "For the Lion and the Emperor!"
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