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Skyray and cost
Lion in the Stars
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Sun Aug 06, 2006 12:04 am 
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OK, I'll also do a comparison of the Firestorm (assuming that thing's fairly pointed)

(BTW, a 50% increase in range is a 225% increase in covered area, give or take the terrain variables.  IMO, a weapon with equal stats, except for a 50% increase in range, should have about double the cost.  However, based on GW's 40k Vehicle Design Rules from 3rd edition, GW believes that a 50% range increase is only worth a 50% points increase.  So we're kinda stuck with GWs opinion on this.)

Tau 4.4 Skyray (75 Points)
AV, 30cm, 4+sv,  6+cc, 6+ff
Smart Missile System:  30cm AP4+ Ignore Cover (changing to AP5+)
2x Hunter Missiles:       75cm AA5+
2x Seeker Missiles:      75cm AT6+ Guided Missiles
Notes: Skimmer, Markerlights

Swordwind Eldar Firestorm (50 Points)
AV, 35cm, 5+sv,  6+cc, 4+ff
Firestorm Battery:  45cm AP5+/AT5+/AA4+ Pulse
Notes: Skimmer

Deployment:  The Skyray is an additional upgrade to several formations, while the Firestorm is only available as an exchange for Falcon grav-tanks, in a limited part of the Biel-Tan army list.  Advantage:  Skyray
Mobility: The Firestorm is slightly faster, and has Hit&Run.
Defense: Skyray has a better save.
Engage Capabilities:  Equal CC, Firestorm has much better FF.
Range:  Skyray.
AA Capabilities: Despite the weird probabilities of Pulse*, a Firestorm is better than 2xAA4+, almost equal to 3x AA4+.
Secondary Capabilities:  Again, a Firestorm is better than 2x AP5+/AT5+, almost equal to 3x AP5+/AT5+.  The only way a Skyray can attack AP is by being within 30cm, which is not a good idea for Tau.

*Pulse (with a 4+ to-hit) gives a 50% chance of no hits, a 25% chance of only one hit, a 12.5% chance of only 2 hits, and a 12.5% chance of 3 hits.  2x 4+ to-hit gives a 25% chance of no hits, a 50% chance of 1 hit, and a 25% chance of 2 hits.

In conclusion, the Firestorm has a significantly better weapon and better mobility, while the Skyray has range.  This is a tougher comparison, as the Firestorm is closer to the Skyray's capabilities than the Hydra is.  I feel that the Skyray is worth about 50% more than a Firestorm, because of it's increased range and wider availability.  (If Firestorms were as available as Skyrays, they'd be worth at least 62.5 points each, maybe 75, IMO)

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Tactica
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 6:34 pm 
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(Dobbsy @ Aug. 04 2006,19:10)
QUOTE

(Tactica @ Aug. 04 2006,16:41)
QUOTE
Glad we have a level headed champion that can consider the multitude of variables at play here.

Hear bloody hear! So true.

The Tau list is so different than other E:A lists that it really does require a well versed perspective not to mention some more analysis than just X in that list only costs Y.

'wave'

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Tactica
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Mon Aug 07, 2006 6:37 pm 
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Lion,

Let us also not forget... the Firestorm also gets
1) Spirit Stones
2) Hit-and-Runs firing attacks
3) 15cm consolidation moves after combat

Which are all a factor of its points, and if anything, all make the firestorm even MORE of a value by comparison - or makes the Skyray less of a value by comp. ?:/

The Skyray is definitely nowhere near the Firestorm value and the Skyray is definitely not Underpriced - to say the least...

'wave'




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CyberShadow
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2006 12:33 am 
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(Lion in the Stars @ Aug. 06 2006,00:04)
QUOTE
Tau 4.4 Skyray (75 Points)...

Swordwind Eldar Firestorm (50 Points)...

This is a tougher comparison, as the Firestorm is closer to the Skyray's capabilities than the Hydra is. ?I feel that the Skyray is worth about 50% more than a Firestorm, because of it's increased range and wider availability.

*Nods... * Interesting comparrison, thanks. This all seems to point that things are at least roughly in line with the Firestorm.

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Lion in the Stars
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Wed Aug 09, 2006 9:22 pm 
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The big advantage of the Skyray over the Firestorm is range and availability.  That huge range increase, coupled with the ability to take more of them, means it's easier (albeit not cheaper) to get good AA coverage in the Tau list (granted, the Eldar list has a few other AA sources, too).  Also, the fact that a Skyray is an addition to (rather than a replacement for) the Hammerhead formations is an additional plus that I had missed mentioning specifically, as that makes Tau armored formations tougher (harder to break) than the Eldar formations (not counting Spirit Stones).

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Tactica
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Thu Aug 10, 2006 4:37 pm 
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Agreed, Eldar have a crazy amount of "better than Skyray" stats, rules, and bonus' - but the Skyray does have the range on it and it is an addition unit, not a replacement unit.

One could argue that the Eldar base unit is a pretty nicely priced unit to begin with too.

In the end, 75 points is not too far from the mark... its definitely not under priced though. Its probably close to the mark or overpriced slightly but due to the incriments of 25 - it is what it is.

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Gotchaye
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 8:21 am 
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Your analysis of the Firestorm is way off.  Pulse on a 4+ or worse gun is not as good as a simple 2x gun.  You can figure out how many hits a Pulse weapon will score on average by adding the average number of hits resulting from each die roll.  For Pulse 4+, the first roll averages .5 hits, the second averages .25 hits (you only roll it half the time, and it only hits half the time), and the third averages .125 hits (you only roll it half of half of the time, and it only hits half the time).  So a Pulse 4+ weapon averages 7/8 hits.

Look at your own math - Pulse 4+ misses completely twice as often, hits once half as often, hits twice half as often, and occasionally hits three times.  On average, Pulse 4+ scores .875 hits, while 2x 4+ scores 1 hit.  Pulse 5+ scores .481 hits on average, while 2x 5+ scores .667 hits on average.  Pulse 5+ is worse than simple 1x 4+, and has more annoying variance in results.

The Firestorm has 31% more AA firepower than the Skyray, while having a much shorter range.  It should be noted that its 45 cm range allows aircraft to drop in from the other side of the formation, lay blast markers without taking fire, and fly away while the Firestorms are suppressed.  The 75 cm range on the Skyray allows it to always get the first strike on enemy aircraft, and it's much easier to cover other friendly formations with it.  The Firestorm does have slightly better AP and AT ability, though Markerlights make the Skyray better on occasion.
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Honda
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:10 pm 
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Look at your own math - Pulse 4+ misses completely twice as often, hits once half as often, hits twice half as often, and occasionally hits three times.  On average, Pulse 4+ scores .875 hits, while 2x 4+ scores 1 hit.  Pulse 5+ scores .481 hits on average, while 2x 5+ scores .667 hits on average.  Pulse 5+ is worse than simple 1x 4+, and has more annoying variance in results.


I know you're just quoting the facts, but I'd be ecstatic if our local Eldar player only rolled the hits you're predicting.

Also, in my 3K games, I tend to see 2-3 Falcon troupes (pre-Sotec changes) along with the Fire Prism and the layered AA pretty much eliminates the need for aircraft assets.

I think where I see a big difference between the Firestorm and the Skyray is that the FS is a better force multiplier for the falcon troupe than the Skyray is for the AMHC.

I am of the opinion though, that the Skyrays cost is where it should be.

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Tactica
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:46 pm 
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I see more Firestorms in Eldar armies than I see Skyray's in Tau armies.

I also think that is due to the better force multiplier the Firestorm provides the Eldar list. It's non-aircraft utility compliments the Falcons perhaps better than the Skyray compliments the AMHC when aircraft are not on the field.

The Firestorm unit provides the Eldar some nice AP/AT stats the Firestorm can produce as well as being coupled with rules like hit-and-run as well as very fast move and spirit stones.

Its also worth note that pulse on sustain gets ugly - at least, that's my experience.

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Lion in the Stars
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 12:05 am 
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(Gotchaye @ Aug. 15 2006,08:21)
QUOTE
Your analysis of the Firestorm is way off. ?Pulse on a 4+ or worse gun is not as good as a simple 2x gun. ?You can figure out how many hits a Pulse weapon will score on average by adding the average number of hits resulting from each die roll. ?For Pulse 4+, the first roll averages .5 hits, the second averages .25 hits (you only roll it half the time, and it only hits half the time), and the third averages .125 hits (you only roll it half of half of the time, and it only hits half the time). ?So a Pulse 4+ weapon averages 7/8 hits.

Look at your own math - Pulse 4+ misses completely twice as often, hits once half as often, hits twice half as often, and occasionally hits three times. ?On average, Pulse 4+ scores .875 hits, while 2x 4+ scores 1 hit. ?Pulse 5+ scores .481 hits on average, while 2x 5+ scores .667 hits on average. ?Pulse 5+ is worse than simple 1x 4+, and has more annoying variance in results.

The Firestorm has 31% more AA firepower than the Skyray, while having a much shorter range. ?It should be noted that its 45 cm range allows aircraft to drop in from the other side of the formation, lay blast markers without taking fire, and fly away while the Firestorms are suppressed. ?The 75 cm range on the Skyray allows it to always get the first strike on enemy aircraft, and it's much easier to cover other friendly formations with it. ?The Firestorm does have slightly better AP and AT ability, though Markerlights make the Skyray better on occasion.

No.  Probabilities are multiplicative, not additive.  If they were additive, two 4+ shots would mean a 100% chance of hitting.  I'll guarantee that you will miss 250 of 1000 shots (plus or minus 25 misses).  Care to bet on it?  It'll take less than 15 minutes to roll out.  In addition, you will find that 500 (+/- 50) will only have 1 hit, and 250 (+/- 25) will have both dice hit, if you want to do some more bookkeeping.

50% of the time, a Firestorm will miss.  Period.  You have to hit the first time in order to roll again.  Half of your 1st hits will miss on the 'pulse reroll', leaving you with a 25% chance of getting only one hit.  The other half the time, your 'pulse re-roll' hits, and you get to roll again.  It looks like a 25% chance of a second hit (and it is a 25% chance of getting at least 2 hits) but you're including the possibility of a third hit along with the probability of your second.  Half of your second hits will not have a third, so you're down to 12.5% chance of 2 hits.  1 shot out of 8, you'll get 3 hits.  That's 12.5%.  Again, 50% chance of a miss, 25% chance of 1 hit, 12.5% chance of 2 hits, 12.5% chance of 3 hits per 'shot' on 4+ Pulse.   Yes, with 8 shots a Firestorm will get 7 damage on average, but that's a different probability curve than the one that matters.  The Damage curve tells you one thing, while the Hit curve is what I'm looking at.

Example 1a:  I only have 1 Firestorm, but it's going to get shots at 8 different formations.  4 formations will be missed outright.  2 of them will only suffer one hit each.  One will suffer 2 hits, while the last will suffer 3 hits.  While I did 7 damage to 8 formations, HALF the attacking formations took no damage (and 2 were mauled badly).

In comparison, 2x AA5+ shots (each hitting 1/3 of the time) have a 4/9 (44.4repeating%) chance of missing entirely, a 1/9 (11.1repeating%) chance of both hitting, and therefore a 4/9 (44.4repeating%) chance of getting one hit.  This makes a Skyray (or a Hydra) significantly more likely to hit once, but slightly less likely to hit twice (and can't hit 3x no matter what).  That chance of 3 hits is what makes a Firestorm so nasty.

Example 1b:  Again, I have 1 Skyray.  It's got 9 incoming formations to shoot at (and is shooting all 9).  It misses 4 formations.  4 formations take one hit each, and the last formation takes 2 hits.  I did 6 damage to 9 formations, but 4 formations still got through unscathed, and only one formation got beat up.

Here, I'll even the numbers for you:
Example 2a:  I only have 1 Firestorm, but it's going to get shots at 72 different formations.  36 formations will be missed outright.  18 formations will only suffer one hit each.  9 formations will suffer 2 hits each, while another 9 formations will suffer 3 hits each.  

Example 2b:  Again, I have 1 Skyray.  It's got 72 incoming formations to shoot at (and is shooting at all of them).  It misses 32 formations.  32 formations take one hit each, and the last 8 formations take 2 hits each.  

The Skyray (or Hydra) will hit 4 more formations out of 72 (5.5repeating% better).  The Firestorm will get more results of multiple hits on one formation (18 formations take at least 2 hits, versus 8 formations taking 2 hits, 13.8repeating% better).  Never mind the 9 formations (assumed of 2) that will have almost no chance of surviving the encounter, suffering 3 hits on 2, 6+ armor saves (1/36 chance of 1 surviving, 1/216 for both).

I'm not saying that 4+ Pulse is as good as 2x 5+.  I'm saying it's better.

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Gotchaye
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 4:26 am 
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No argument here, but that's not what you were saying earlier.

From your earlier post: a Firestorm is better than 2xAA4+, almost equal to 3x AA4+.
 Not "a Firestorm is better than 2x AA5+, almost equal to 3x AA5+".  Later, you also claimed that its AP and AT Pulsars were close to 3x AP5+/AT5+.  This is also wrong.

Of course 4+ Pulse is better than 2x 5+; I never said otherwise.  I was pointing out that Pulse is slightly worse than 2x AA4+, and is certainly not as good as 3x AA4+, as you were claiming.  I never said anything about the Skyray being better (in pure damage output) than the Firestorm; you'll note that my last paragraph fairly unambiguously declares that the Firestorm is superior (neglecting range, armor, and other capabilities).

As well, regarding the bit at the beginning, I made quite clear (by using the word six times) that I was offering a handy way to determine the average number of hits for Pulse weaponry.  And this average really is quite useful for determining the relative abilities of various weapons - it's certainly all we need to determine that a Pulse 4+ weapon doesn't exceed a 2x 4+ weapon, and has absolutely nothing on a 3x 4+ weapon.  Yes, it hits three times just as often as does the 3x 4+ weapon, but it's much worse at everything else.
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Lion in the Stars
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:11 am 
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Aaaaaagh!  That's what I get for typing analysis close to midnight local time.   :blush:

I'm going to bed now.  Too tired to give good analysis and reports.  :p

Goodnight all.

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Honda
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:10 pm 
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Ok, after all the kumbaya stuff, what both of your analysis has confirmed for me (which is what I experience the hard way in a game) is that my aircraft formations get swept from the sky by end of turn 2 to mid-turn three.

Anyway the Firestorm is not my friend. Add in the Fire prism and it's as ugly as it gets.

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Tactica
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:37 pm 
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Perhaps a bit off topic, but just as an FYI - let us also not forget that pulse 3+ is better than 2x 3+ shots. Pulse 2+ is better than 2x 2+ shots.

However, as Gotchaye points out, 2x 4+ - 6+ shots is better than the equivilent single pulse shot at 4+ - 6+

Thus, the firestorm is even getting better at shooting down aircraft with Sotec's latest 1.5 revision of eliminating pulse and swapping it with 2x the previous pulse value to hit instead of a single pulse shot.

Cheers,

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CyberShadow
 Post subject: Skyray and cost
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2006 12:44 pm 
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I am just revisiting a few threads to make sure that I have not missed anything. After working through all of the stats, I guess that the conclusion is that, under current circumstances, the SkyRay is OK at 75 points right now.

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