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Prompted by the recent revelation that this would be an excellent addition to the Raven Guard army list...
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It seems like it's down primarily to armor save and point costs, with some quibbling over bolter stats. 4+ RA makes the most sense based strictly on the 40K stats and the airframe. However, 5+RA can be justified by various methods, including reduced maneuverability from heavier loads and exposed cargo.
4+: Makes it as tough as a Thawk on a per-unit basis and a formation of 2 becomes a lot tougher. 2 are better than 1 in an assault. In addition, a formation of 2 can carry more with respect to total points transported than a single Thawk - up to 60% more depending on payload but usually closer to 30%. Even with reduced firepower, they have to cost substantially more. 2 for 250-275 points would seem about right.
However, the ~125 cost also means that formations larger than 2 has little or no use. A formation of 3 or more competes with a Landing Craft for similar capacity and at ~125 per THT, the LC is a better value. That's not necessarily a problem, but it's a pretty small niche for the THT.
4 THTs becomes cost-prohibitive in GT games. Even with something like "275 for 2, +100 per additional THT" you're looking at 475 points. They'd only carry about the same points as a Landing craft. They wouldn't be appreciably more durable on the initial attack than a LC. In later turns they could be thrown into even the heaviest flak to provide CAS, but I still don't see that balancing out.
5+: Weaker than a Thawk on a per-unit basis, but a formation of 2 should be almost as tough with respect to durability an initial insertion and probably a bit tougher on following turns for CAS. Again, they would carry more payload and be better in assaults (less so than with 4+RA, but still a bit better). With the same or slightly less firepower, they would probably be okay at the same price for Thawks - 2 for 200.
In contrast to the 4+ stats, at ~100 points each a formation of 3 THTs makes for a viable alternative to a LC. It has less capacity (ballpark it at ~2/3 of the points with less flexibility in what may be carried) and it's more likely to lose part of its payload on the way in. However, it's notably cheaper, better in the assault, and would have a little better ranged firepower. Also, the loss of capacity isn't as big of a deal as it seems at first. A fully loaded LC is a HUGE chunk of points, whereas 3 loaded THTs is a more reasonable investment.
If you want to go just a bit more expensive, 4 THTs at ~400 points versus a Landing Craft is also a viable option. The THTs are more expensive and more likely to have one shot down and still only carry about the same number of points with less flexibility. However, they have more firepower, more assault ability, and will be more effective in CAS later in the game. It's probably not feasible in anything but huge games.
At only 100 points each, THTs are cheap enough start potentially competing with other CAS options but I think that the revised Marauder, Tbolts and the support Thawk variants still offer better options in that respect. The THTs are quite a bit tougher than the IN options but have considerably less firepower.
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It seems to me that regardless of the non-gameplay considerations the 5+RA for ~100 points provides a lot more strategic and tactical options in an army list.
Heavier or more heavily armed is self-limiting.
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Neal
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