Hi!
Interesting. I put less value on their naval forces, no matter the relative size. Without adequate air cover they are just targets. What little air cover they had left after the defeat in the air war can not possibly escort their naval assets in any effective manner.
Also, with the invasion of southern england a good part of England's radar net would be rendered useless. Thus giving the germans an edge.
Also, we assume they wouldnt try landing tanks at the get go. What if they did. Even a small tank force with limted petrol could be overwhelming if used correctly. Also, add resupply by captured airfields, thus obviating the need for the immediate capture of a port. Given air superiority, several captured airfields could fly in quite a bit of supplies, even petrol to fuel those few tanks that came in the assault waves.
Also, there is one point absent in this discussion. While we stress the logistic problems of the germans, we forget the problem of british logistics. Its an island, it was well known that several weeks without merchant shipping bringing in supplies would starve the british people. That's why the U-boat threat was so great. The germans only have to feed their invading troops. The british need to feed their military AND population.
Also this means the royal navy has two jobs, guarantee shipping coming into friendly ports AND fending of invasion all with unfriendly skies... and not to mention U-boats that could now navigate with impunity (no airplanes to sink them).
Also, even if the british moved air forces to the north, the germans could move theirs to southern england, thus getting the Whole british isle under bomber and fighter cover. Constantly bombing those ports where the RN was based and at its most vulnerable. The few planes the RAF could master, may defend some, but not all, and not against sustained attack.
I wont get into the impact of some help from the Irish, but it would have been interesting to see their reaction on having germans on English soil.... (the enemy of my enemy....)
Also, let us remember that at this juncture the german troops were of veteran quality, victors in many battles up to this point. The quality and morale of the british troops at this stage was not great. The home guard was in many cases old and undertrained.
I think in a real sense the battle of britian was truely won (or in our alternate scenario, lost) by the air war. Knowing what we know of the importance of air dominance (fact which won the allies the eurpopean war), it gave the germans real options of supply by any route, while being able to deny supply to the british (sink merchant shipping via submarines and air dominance).
The greatest threat in my view to german success, would be the unpredicatability of the weather. Nasty storms can and do happen in the channel. A bad one could have devastating effects. But given decent channel conditions, air dominance and the viability of resupply via air, and the poor disposition, training and equipment of the british at the time, I give the germans a "better than average" chance to win.
Fun topic.
Primarch
