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Future of SG

 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 1:51 pm 
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That's the point, different markets.

Card Games, Board Games, Roleplay Games and Computer games are different markets. Hence the licences to Fantasy Flight.

Sure there is some crossover. 40K players spending some money on Dark Heresy, Warhammer players spending some money on Chaos in the Old World or Warhammer Invasion when they could be spending that money on more figs, but GW figure it isn't a big enough problem, the markets are sufficiently distant and hence allowing the Licences to go through.

Back to epic, what is the point in having two products for the same market (sci-fi miniatures market) when one the cost of ownership is less if you only have one. Hence no investment (keep the cost of ownership down) and no promotion (to keep the epic and 40k markets separate). It's a niche market within a niche market and it's in GW's interest to keep it that way. The depressing fact is, epic fans, is that Epic can't be allowed to make a huge amount of money, even if it has the potential to do so because it's just sharing the overall pot with 40k.

If GW ever came to the conclusion that there was a sufficiently distant market for epic then things might change - can't see it though.

Apart from a few extra quid epic brings in (that is money that wouldn't have been spent on 40k) the only other benefit keeping epic on is the 'love' factor kirkby was talking about. If it doesn't undermine the bottom line then it's ok to keep it going just for the love of it (same with the other SG games)

As Mephiston says, once the moulds start to wear out, the cost of replacing them may be too great and GW will be forced to drop it. We'll see

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:39 pm 
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Quote: (alansa @ Dec. 16 2009, 04:51 )

That's the point, different markets.

Card Games, Board Games, Roleplay Games and Computer games are different markets. Hence the licences to Fantasy Flight.

I'd agree that all of the above except computer games, specifically MMOGs, are not really competing for core GW business.  The target market for MMOGs is basically the same as for 40K.  

If your 11-25 year olds are all off spending their free time chasing pixels, they aren't going to be devoting much time or money to "The Hobby".

Being myopically focused on the 28mm universe really says more about the lack of creative resources than anything.  If you are running lean, as GW seems to be, you simply can't afford to spread your focus around.

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 2:50 pm 
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Quote: (Ghudra @ Dec. 16 2009, 13:39 )

If your 11-25 year olds are all off spending their free time chasing pixels, they aren't going to be devoting much time or money to "The Hobby".

True, however i tend to paint and model whilst playing mmorpgs :)

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:03 pm 
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They're still sufficiently different markets, and GW believe crossover within some individuals is ok, so long as it doesn't hit the 'core games pot' too much.

Computer games cater for a huge market who are NOT AT ALL interested interested in collecting miniatures.

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:29 pm 
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Quote: (alansa @ Dec. 16 2009, 12:26 )

Well I agree with Mr Kirkby on those points quoted.

Yeah, he's pretty much got it.  I might quibble on some small points (e.g. there is price sensitivity if there is a competing, similar quality product in the market), but overall it's on point.

Quote: 

Never-the-less it would seem GW are not nearly properly practising what Kirby is preaching.

Ding, ding, ding!  That's the problem.

Quote: 

Back to epic, what is the point in having two products for the same market (sci-fi miniatures market) when one the cost of ownership is less if you only have one. Hence no investment (keep the cost of ownership down) and no promotion (to keep the epic and 40k markets separate). It's a niche market within a niche market and it's in GW's interest to keep it that way. The depressing fact is, epic fans, is that Epic can't be allowed to make a huge amount of money, even if it has the potential to do so because it's just sharing the overall pot with 40k.

I don't necessarily agree with all of this.  The philosophy of SG when it was started was for it to be an adjunct to the "The Hobby" of the core games.  It was to provide additional depth and, for most of the games, maturity to the universe.  It was not supposed to cannibalize their core market but keep people in The Hobby longer.

Thinking about it like that I don't think it's entirely "the same market" but even assuming it is, the point of having multiple products in the same market is to increase overall market share.  As Kirby notes, word of mouth is better than any advertising.  Having dominant market share means you own most of the word of mouth.  That's a self-reinforcing cycle.  Market share = free promotion = more market share (or at least safer maintenance of the market share).

If you can make $X with 20% of the market, or $X with 40% of the market, having 40% is better even if you make no more profit.  The Return on Investment might be lower (how much lower depends on how synergistic the line development can be), but even if ROI is lower the long-term stability of a market share approach is better than a short term ROI approach.


Now... maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe the market research gurus at GW have come to the conclusion that the SG lines really do "cannibalize" from 40K and WFB.  Or maybe people who would otherwise migrate to SG would stick with the core lines if SG weren't available, at least long enough for GW to make the same profit off of the higher margin core products.

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:41 pm 
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Quote: (Apocolocyntosis @ Dec. 16 2009, 05:50 )

Quote: (Ghudra @ Dec. 16 2009, 13:39 )

If your 11-25 year olds are all off spending their free time chasing pixels, they aren't going to be devoting much time or money to "The Hobby".

True, however i tend to paint and model whilst playing mmorpgs :)

Heh, now that's multitasking. Ever glue yourself to the keyboard? :laugh:

Rules mangling aside, I'll always wonder why GW never worked harder to integrate their 40K systems.  If they did some revisioning and looked at SG/FW games as expansions to 40K, similar to Apoc & Planetary Empires, you'd think they could rope in more revenue.

I've played combined games of RT/40K & Epic in the past as part of a homebrew campaign and it was damn fun.  With AI & BFG now, you could go hog wild and play at all levels.

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 3:50 pm 
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Here's my tuppence.

Ultimately it comes down to the simple fact that the greater majority of GW's customers aren't interested in "graduating" to the more adult-appropriate Specialist Games like Epic.

The majority of GW customers, at any particular point in time, have been playing GW games for less than a year.

Soon enough, they will quit, and another set of new customers will pick up the game and play for a year, then quit.

So GW saw that gamers weren't sticking around to play their games long-term, so it wasn't the non-existence of "advanced" games like Epic that was keeping gamers from staying buying GW products, it was just that customers would inevitably move on to other persuits long before they became mature enough to appreciate a game like Epic.

And so GW resolved to keep their customers in the Core hobby for longer, rather than offering pastures new beyond the Core games (which wasn't working), they resolved to try and keep their typical customers in their current Core game for longer, on average.

They've done this most obviously in Warhammer 40,000 and Lord of the Rings, by offering an 'end point' to the hobby beyond just collecting your standard  'tournament' sized army, in the form of Apocalypse and War of the Ring, which offer the prospect of massive, inspiring games.

More subtly, they've attempted to make newbies' games more aesthetically appealing, by concentrating resources on producing new lines of terrain kits, pre-made gaming tables, and painting products which beginners can use to achieve good looking results without much skill (Foundation Paints, new matte Washes, and a spray gun).

So with the closure of Fanatic GW re-set what they considered to be a 'veteran' gamer.

Fanatic had considered a 'veteran' gamer to be someone in their 20's or later, looking for challenging or involving game systems with great tactical complexity or compelling character. Fanatic catered to those 'veterans' by providing games like Epic, Warmaster, BFG, Mordheim, Inquisitor, etc...

GW now considers a 'veteran' gamer to be someone who has been playing their games for one year, and is about to quit the hobby. GW caters to those 'veterans' by providing them with harder-to-reach end-points to their hobby (Apocalypse sized games instead of 1500pt sized games) and with easier ways to make their miniatures & gaming tables look good.

In that atmosphere, there is no place for the Specialist Games, beyond good will, sentiment, and minor cash income.




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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:09 pm 
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E&C:  I get all that, but that doesn't invalidate the idea of keeping the SG games around.  It's still a separate market segment that the core games aren't reaching.  As long as the lines are profitable, it captures greater market share and the company makes more profit than before.  Shutting down SG for the new lines is something of trading a bird in the hand for 2 in the bush.

I think the virtual shutdown of SG is driven more by GW's cash-strapped status than anything else.  Ideally, they should maintain the SG as a profit center and develop the new "hobbyist" products separately, but they don't have the capital to do it.  They chose to unplug SG for the short term savings to fund the other stuff.

Obviously, they've decided the trade is a good one.  I just doubt the long-term wisdom of that approach.

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 4:19 pm 
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Quote: (nealhunt @ Dec. 16 2009, 15:09 )

E&C:  I get all that, but that doesn't invalidate the idea of keeping the SG games around.  It's still a separate market segment that the core games aren't reaching.  As long as the lines are profitable, it captures greater market share and the company makes more profit than before.  Shutting down SG for the new lines is something of trading a bird in the hand for 2 in the bush.

I agree that shutting down the sales of the SG's now would make little sense.

But as far as new investment goes, if £1 invested in Epic garners £2 in proft, but that same £1 invested in Warhammer 40,000 garners £5 in profit, then GW, as a cash-strapped company, is making the prudent choice in concentrating on its Core lines, whilst also prolonging its average customer's interest in the Core lines.

So it makes sense for GW to keep selling Epic (at least until the moulds die), just as at the same time it makes little sense for them to invest in making new models/rulebooks/etc.

Quote: 

They chose to unplug SG for the short term savings to fund the other stuff.

Obviously, they've decided the trade is a good one.  I just doubt the long-term wisdom of that approach.

Honestly I think the trade was a prudent one, as the company was in some pretty serious trouble a few years back.

I also think that most of the SG's could turn decent profits if supported properly by an independent company, once freed from the structure and overheads of the GW umbrella, but GW ain't selling on that front, regretably.




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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 5:58 pm 
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Quote: (Erik M @ Dec. 16 2009, 07:18 )

Quote: (Legate @ Dec. 16 2009, 00:24 )

As this is a thread I started I will ask this here.  I've been looking at both exodus wars, and DRM as proxies for a Cadian IG force.  Now, I know many around here have used both as proxie troop, but how do they really stack up (quality and scale wise) to GW?  Some up close pics would be nice, if availabe (primarily of DRM light inf and SF troops.)

Oh, they stack up nice. Real nice.
You got some examples here.

Agreed ... DRM & E/W, even GZG are equal to or better than G/W's ...  :D

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 6:00 pm 
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Quote: (Dwarf Supreme @ Dec. 15 2009, 21:50 )

Quote: (Legate @ Dec. 15 2009, 16:43 )

Sorry guys, didn't want to start a panic.

Who's panicking?  :grinning: If GW gave SG the ax, it wouldn't effect my enjoyment of, or how much I play, Epic and given the current prices I haven't bought any new minis in a long time. Besides, as others have said, given all the companies that now carry good quality 6mm minis, it's not like our source of new minis will dry up.

Yeah ... if G/W KO'd Epic ... So what !  :p  We'd be better off ... it's been on life support forever ...  :disagree:  :laugh:  :cool:




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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 6:17 pm 
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Quote: (Rug @ Dec. 16 2009, 15:56 )

There will become a saturation point where to make further gains in the Market GW will need a 40k game like EA, I just hope they realise that before burning their bridges and alienating a potentially very useful and productive community.

We make models, write rules and run tournaments!

Indeed; should GW leave Epic on ice for too many more years, with companies like Exodus Wars and Dark Realm to support 6mm Sci Fi with high quality miniatures, and volunteer groups like the NetEA project (for army lists and supplements) and EpicUK (for running tournaments and more army lists) it seems as if the Epic community will inevitably, and regrettably, end up self sufficient.

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 6:46 pm 
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...it seems as if the Epic community will inevitably, and regrettably, end up self sufficient.


But with models which aren't derived from the Wh40k universe. Except scratch build ones.

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 Post subject: Future of SG
PostPosted: Wed Dec 16, 2009 7:31 pm 
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Would that be such a bad thing?

A generic game with 'universe' bolt ons might have more longevity and appeal, as well as making it easier to include lists for what is actually available to buy.

There's me dreaming again :(


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