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CS - v4.3.4 Topics?

 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2006 5:52 pm 
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I found something strange on the last tau list. It has perhaps already been reported, but here it is :
6 tetras = 175 points ( 29.1 per tetra )
+3 tetras =  75 points  (25 per tetra )

In comparison :
6 piranhas = 150 points ( 25 per piranha )
+ 4 piranhas =  100 points ( 25 per piranha )

Why adding a cost to the tetra contingent and not to the piranha one?


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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2006 6:32 pm 
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Thurse,

Different units have different impacts when taken as a stand alone formation vs. as an upgrade.

Some formations get weaker, some formations get stronger based upon their rules and impact on the rest of the list.

Tau Examples,

1 - Tau Jet Pack equipped troops joining infantry without jet packs loose some of their potential in speed and combat avoidance. When fielded together, they are more valuable.

2 - When marker light tetras are bolted onto a seperate formation that doesn't have them, the tetras have to get close to become effective in their main role. They formation they are bolted onto now have to be drug in close as well. The tetra as an upgrade has limited uses as other Tau formations usually don't want to be close if they can avoid it.

3 - However, as a stand alone formation, the tetra can scout in close to do their job well enough... JG felt they did their job as a stand alone formation too well so gave them a bump in points from their upgrade per unit variant. There were people that disagreed with that increase BTW.

4 - Piranhas provide the same benefit to the player whether they are in a stand alone formation or bolted on and thus far they have proved to be balanced in either role.

Non-Tau examples:

Shadowswords are cheaper when fielded in threes as a company. However, when individually fielded - they go up in cost.

Warhound titans are the same price whether they are individually fielded or whether they are fielded in pairs.

Cheers,





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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2006 10:10 pm 
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Here's a general question for the Tau players: are you going to downgrade anything (other than the assumed alteration to the A-X-10), or are you just going to increase the power of the list further?

Not meaning to start an argument here, but I'm intrigued - why the need for further increases in the lists power when (according to Battlestats) you're winning a higher % of games than the Eldar list?

Just some food for thought (I hope)...

*Ducks into a trench, dons his promethium-proof armour, and legs it.....

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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Fri Feb 17, 2006 11:03 pm 
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Heh.  I hadn't noticed the battlestats.  I'd say the trend to have so many possible options may be having a cumulative effect.

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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:00 am 
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Quote (dysartes @ 17 Feb. 2006 (15:10))
Here's a general question for the Tau players: are you going to downgrade anything (other than the assumed alteration to the A-X-10), or are you just going to increase the power of the list further?

Not meaning to start an argument here, but I'm intrigued - why the need for further increases in the lists power when (according to Battlestats) you're winning a higher % of games than the Eldar list?

Just some food for thought (I hope)...

*Ducks into a trench, dons his promethium-proof armour, and legs it.....


[EDIT] I've removed my original comments here [/EDIT]

This question assumes Battles Stats as a quantifiable scientific measure by which any credance should be given.

So one must first question whether Battle stats is a reliable source of measure.

If in a given period of time, battle stats is being updated an equal amount of time by a multitude (wide variety) of players that do NOT have the same agenda, then we can start to give *some* wieght to its results reported.

However, if its being updated by a select few more than others, and the amount of data is only a negligable subset from those actually playing, and if one particular point in time can skew the results, then we would say the data is wieghted - heh, to say the *least* about battle stats.

I for one, quit updating Battle Stats many MANY months (if not years) ago. I know I've lost more than I've won with the tau and only recently seen a balance of results against *some* lists.

I suspect if you look most recently (in the last month or two), many if not most of the updates will be from TRC and his group which some would say he had an agenda to prove concerning the AX-1-0 - which is now being addressed BTW.

So if we could somehow remove all of those 'wins' which he claimed he was posting, we could then address the rest of the stats - and then again, we'd have to assume that we would have an equal amount of data provided by a multitude of players over a given period of time. We would then have to further compare that data from that time against the list of that time.

So you see - battle stats is quite questionable from any scientific measure - much less, a development standard.

[obvious extremes mode on]
Regards to 'every seeing toning down'... If we would have started with Tau list has 2+ to hit with everything, all units cost 1 point each, and all units have initiative 1 with Strategy 6...
[obvious extremes mode off]
...then your question would have more merit to me personally.

[EDIT] I've removed my original comments here [/EDIT]





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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:01 am 
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Quote (nealhunt @ 17 Feb. 2006 (16:03))
Heh. ?I hadn't noticed the battlestats. ?I'd say the trend to have so many possible options may be having a cumulative effect.

or there are [EDIT] other factors to consider [/EDIT]





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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:23 am 
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or there are those on battlestats with an agenda...

Yeah, we're all out to get you Tactica! :p

Seriously though I don't think either Neal or Dysartes has an axe to grind with the Tau list.  There's no problem with people questioning the power level of the list.  In fact its necessary to keep us focused on creating a good balanced list thats fun to pay and fun to play against.

Of course Battlestats isn't the be all and end all of measures of list power.  But it is an oft-quoted statistic when other lists are being discussed (SM and Eldar come to mind).  

Besides the answer to the question is yes.  We do downgrade units that our extensive playtesting shows a problem with.  The "dreaded" AX-1-0 is an example of that, and a while back the Broadsides became LV, which most people will agree is a slight downgrade.

I am confident that we can discuss these issues in a friendly manner.  :)

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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:43 am 
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Everyone is aware of the limitations of the Battlestats site.  Personally, I take it simply as a metastudy of batreps.  Regardless of the potential for various kinds of error to creep in, it seems to be holding pretty close to board-reported experiences over the long haul.

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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 12:59 am 
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Originally posted by Tactica
Not meaning to start an argument here? Really?

What did you expect with this post?

How constructive was your post?


Yes, really. My intention was to get people to take a step back and question whether improvement on improvement is actually needed (which is what the inital post seemed to reflect), and to provide figures from one of the few sources of such information around.

As for how constructive was it? It's got at least one other person thinking. That, if nothing else, is constructive, as I understand it.

Originally posted by Tactica
This question is agenda driven to say the least, but I'll humor it.


Counter-humoring - What agenda do you see?

Originally posted by Tactica
This question assumes Battles Stats as a quantifiable scientific measure by which any credance should be given.

So one must first question whether Battle stats is a reliable source of measure.

To my knowlege, its as reliable as anything of this type can be - though you'd need to ask Pixelgeek about that.

As for if any credence should be given to it - figures from the stats are used as justification for why the Eldar, BSM & Feral Orks need toning down (despite the BSM having ~15-20% of the games Tau have, and F.Orks having about 10%). Statistics from there are also used as justification for tweaking the SM list upwards, seeing as it has won a mere 33.7% of their games.

As a general rule, though, the larger the sample size, the more accurate the results.

Originally posted by Tactica
If in a given period of time, battle stats is being updated an equal amount of time by a multitude of players that do not have the same agenda - we can start to give it some wieght to its results.

However, if its being updated by a select few more than others, then we would say the data is wieghted - to say the least.

I for one, quit updating Battle Stats many, many months (if not years) ago. I know I've lost more than I've won and only recently seen a balance against some lists.

Last I heard, the intention was for as many people as possible to report into B.Stats, especially with results from tournaments or other such events. Assuming this is the case, and I have no reason to doubt it,

Originally posted by Tactica
I suspect if you look most recently (in the last month or two), many if not most of the updates will be from TRC and his group which some would say he had an agenda to prove concerning the AX-1-0 - which is now being addressed.

So if we could somehow remove all of those 'wins' which he claimed he was posting, we could then address the rest of the stats - and then again, we'd have to assume that we would have an equal amount of data provided by a multitude of players over a given period of time. We would then have to further compare that data from that time against the list of that time.

Addressing the first paragraph first, which seems to make sense, I don't have access to that level of data. I don't know if anyone does, bar whoever maintains the database with the results on it. Furthermore, I don't recall seeing TRC mention that he'd submitted his results to B.Statas or not, though knowing TRC, I wouldn't be surprised.

Looking at the second paragraph, I'm a little confused as to what you think makes TRC's games less valid than anyone else's, merely because he was testing a particular combination - that, after all, is part of the development process. The "5 Aces" list which he was using appears to have remained stable for quite a while, which certainly makes it viable as a tournemant list. He was playing opponents who didn't know who or what they were facing on a given evening (I accept that they may have known the player, but probably not the force or list being used - without TRC online, we can't confirm this, though), so the "Out of the Box" criteria can be met - in a way, it fits for TRC as well, as he didn't appear to be tailoring his list for specific opponents. The games were at about average size (2700 points, IIRC), and were played using GT Scenario rules - as far as I'm concerned, perfectly valid playtest games.

I'll admit it - I fail to see why you'd say they didn't count, given that they met the above criteria.

Originally posted by Tactica
So you see - battle stats is quite useless from any scientific measure - much less, a development standard.

Note: I've had to clean up my post here. Suffice it to say I've gained a new appreciation today.



If we were to solely work off Battlestats, then yes, in its current form I'd agree with you. However, it is meant to be there as a quick reference, so we can pick up obvious list imbalances at the army vs army level.

I'm curious as to what you've gained a new appreciation of, too - is a question about the possibility of force downgrades discouraged?

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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 5:04 am 
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Well, without putting words in Tactica's mouth, I think the saying goes, "There's liars, d*mn liars, and statisticians". ?:/

The point being that because Battlestats only reports (to my knowledge, I could be stepping out on a limb) win/loss and army (is there anything else?), that without controlled scenarios and conditions to drive the testing, it's very difficult to draw solid conclusions.

Extreme examples:

Game 1) SM vs Tau, Tau player takes 5 AX-1-0, the SM player doesn't take any AA or aircraft.

Game 2) SM vs. Orks, the SM player takes all scouts to try out a concept.

In both cases, the SM player loses.

What conclusions should be drawn from these examples to apply to the SM list?

Answer: None

Although, if one were trying to prove that Scouts are too expensive (i.e. you couldn't buy enough to swamp the Orks), then you do have some "statistical" proof to support your hypothesis.

So, unless the testing conditions are structured and designed to test specific conditions (ala TRC's proving that the AX-1-0 could provide an unexpected advantage against some armies), then what the Battlestat statistics provide is nothing more than "interesting".

It should also be mentioned that there is an observable phenomenom in 40K as well as WFB, which is that the newest list produced tends to have a high winning percentage early on because of its newness. As more people get experience playing against that new list, then counter-measures get derived and the win/loss record tends to get closer to break even.

The Tau list is still new. We the community are still figuring out what it is capable of (or not), so we shouldn't be surprised that some opponents struggle with it.

To date, I am about break even with all the versions of the Tau lists. Not that my playing is necessarily that indicative of the population at large, but I for one am still trying different combinations to see what is effective for my playing style.

I expect to get better.  :p





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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 10:23 am 
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Personally, I think that Dysartes question was totally valid and I did not take it as loaded in any way. This is supposed to be fun, guys. ?:/

To tackle the posts in roughly reverse order...

I think that Honda has a good fix on my opinion of Battlestats. I do think that it is a very useful tool, but that this becomes more difficult with lists which are in such a state of flux. For example, of the Tau lists, which results deal with the version currently in the vault, and which with the current version here? It is impossible to tell, and the two lists are considerably different. I do think that Battlestats has a place in the development process, but more as an evaluation tool. I do think that there are some people with agendas, and that perhaps there are some results which are not true representations, but also that these are the minority and do not greatly affect the outcomes. Therefore, if Battlestats states that the Tau list is winning/losing more than its share of games after it has been 'written down in stone' then it will be examined as one source of the information.

It is also true that the newness of a force often affects its win/loss ratio (40K developers hate this by-product of a new force). However, this effect is possibly less than may be expected due to the fact that many Tau players here play only Tau and often against the same opponents. It does happen, but I dont think that it is a huge factor.

TRC's games are just as valid, if not more valid, than many Battlestats games, for this stage of the development process. If there is a particular type of Tau or enemy force which proves more or less effective then we need to know about it, in detail. We should not confuse 'having an agenda' with 'having a belief that the list is unbalanced in some aspect'. They are totally different things.

I would also like to say that I dont believe that anyone here, including nealhunt, Dysartes or TRC, has an aex to grind against the tau list in any way. I am extremely wary of rules creep in any form and I do deliberately attempt to drive development slowly as a partial guard against this (too slowly for some here).

In response to Dysartes original question - while the Battlestats state a certain effect, I am unwilling to accept it at face value, particularly if/when it goes counter to experiences of playtesters here.

I am aware that there is perceived inbalance in the Tau list, and a general opinion that it is a 'fan army'. I will be examining ways in which to counter this, and the actual truth of it. The next version of the Tau list will consist of a number of changes to V4.3.3 - the AX-1-0 has been altered for balance, upgrades will be clarified. etc. I am perhaps more hesitant to 'upgrade' units compared to 'downgrading' them, but if there is anything that pointed out by anyone as being too 'strong' in the list them I am more than happy to examine it.

Thanks.

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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 11:07 am 
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Mwhahaha, back with a net connection - now from sunny Bangladesh!
Curiously enough since working for the UN I have become less keen on agendas and more keen on minutes - something to do with action instead of words :)

Battlestats. Yes I enter the games I play (also PG kindly enters the tourney results as only an admin can do that many). I don't have much stock with it for anything more than watching trends. In lieu of decent info like what army list version, what size of battle etc to marry the results to I just look in when I enter a game to see how the percentages have changed. If they creep up odds on people have figured out how to ue a list, creep down and everyone has figured out how to beat it. Course this only works for races with a few games entered - for Tau with over a hundred its harder to see any significant change.

Certainly I think its good for Marines, Orks and Guard now they have been out so long and there odds seem to match mine.

For Tau though the list has been around for ages in lots of different versions, one at least hidiously overpowered (the one that allowed you to double and not take -1 when shooting - It came to the WPS Club Challenge and swept all before it and those games all got entered I believe) so battlestats ain't that hot for it - shame we can't delete everything from before version 4 or so as it would be a lot more useful then.

Oh - another problem with battlestats. On occassion I've entered a result and so has my opponent and if this is quite widespread it would magnify any trends pretty quickly. Also its a shame a result can't be hyperlinked to its batrep to give it more credance/background.

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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 7:22 pm 
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D,

[EDIT] I've removed my original comments here [/EDIT]

I look forward to your suggestions for unit reductions to the existing list.

[EDIT] I've removed my original comments here [/EDIT]





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 Post subject: CS - v4.3.4 Topics?
PostPosted: Sat Feb 18, 2006 8:22 pm 
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[quote="CyberShadow,18 Feb. 2006 (03:23)"][/quote]


I am aware that there is perceived inbalance in the Tau list, and a general opinion that it is a 'fan army'


What does 'fan army' mean in this context?

If the label is accurate, does it mean our list is more / less valid and/or different than IG, Chaos or Eldar?

If the feeling is we have only a fan list - i.e. catachan list and the alike, well, that's rather disheartening considering the amount of playtest and contributions that have gotten us to this point.

Then I also wonder if this comes from the public in general not seeing updated lists in the vault. The vault list is so out dated that its no suprise if people think that Tau list is little more than a fan list. This of course brings up the continual plea from many of us to get the vault list updated sooner rather than later for the masses to review. At least the public will see progress - even if its not the final version.


I will be examining ways in which to counter this, and the actual truth of it.




Hmm...

The next version of the Tau list will consist of a number of changes to V4.3.3 - the AX-1-0 has been altered for balance, upgrades will be clarified. etc.


I guess we are waiting for v4.3.4 then... sounds like plenty will be changing.

I am perhaps more hesitant to 'upgrade' units compared to 'downgrading' them,
Sounds like a good practice in general.

but if there is anything that pointed out by anyone as being too 'strong' in the list them I am more than happy to examine it.
Should be interesting to see what kind of feedback this one generates.




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