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Well, Neal, I appreciate your point of view, but I disagree with it mostly for two reasons.
#1 is that I don't think Tournament Play should be the end-all and be-all deciding factor of Epic rules, any more than it should be for the other GW game systems. I don't attend Epic Tournaments (although I probably would if any were held locally), although I do attend RTT's and some GT's on a regular basis, and Tournament play is very different from casual or campaign play. If all you focus on is Tournament play, you are seriously short-changing the system.
#2 is that, in my personal experience, you are seriously shorting the estimation on the number of MW shots that show up in a typical army. At least locally, people cram as much MW weaponry into their lists as they can afford in most instances, as it is so vastly superior to regular weaponry. Don't get me wrong...they often have plenty of the latter as well, but it tends to be of the cheaper variety, i.e. mass firepower with worse to-hit numbers.
I, myself, seem to never leave home without a variety of MW firepower in my other lists...Eldar and Feral Orks (who DO have MW in ABUNDANCE, btw...my Steam Gargant Horde drops a 12BP MW Barrage every turn, on top of the 5+ MW shot they have, and the 5+ MW shots from every other formation with a Wyrdboy). And, at 3k points, I STILL don't have enough room to spread them out in my DZ...I have too many little guys.
Its not as if fielding MW is difficult.
But, as I said, thats MY experience. Perhaps where you play people leave all the MW stuff at home. I find that a little odd, actually, but, hey, to each his own.
And, its not about what percentage of an army has MW weaponry...its about how whatever they have will be concentrated on the Carnis, because there is little or no point in shooting it at the INF formations.
And I have yet to see a Wyrdboy get Suppressed OR an Ork Horde without a bazillion Soopagunz. Eldar ALWAYS have EoV/Titans, and, as you said, Chaos has plenty of access.
I tend to agree with your assessment of Marines, and I don't really think its going to be a problem against them.
BTW, it really doesn't matter which end of the dice rolling you start at...to hit or armor saves...the percentages work out exactly the same. Whats in contention here seems to be the composition of the enemy list and how it will be used. I guess thats just something we'll have to disagree on.
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