primarch wrote:
shelfunit wrote:
MagnusIlluminus wrote:
If the modifier is reduced to *1.25 (half it's current value), single model cost is 657 and Formation cost is 1470. This might be more accurate and more balanced.
As primarily a Space Marine player I would look at this and think "For the cost of 2 revenant titans I can bring 3 land raider companies" and I would expect that 60 lascannon shots would take down at least one of them a turn. Now, I say this having not played for many years, so my memory might not be particularly great and I'm probably missing something fairly big here, but that example match up just seems a bit one sided.
Hi!
I'm sure Magnus can do the math better, but land raiders hit on a 5+, so approximately a 33% chance to hit. However the holofields will block at least half of those shots. .50 x .33= .165 or 16.5% per shot to hit and get through shields. This percentage is further reduced by scatter and finally the armor save. So the per hit chance or taking it out is rather small.
This has actually prompted me to do a test. All those land raiders versus the revenant with standard terrain and see what happens.
I'm willing to bet the revenant can do pretty good given a competent commander.
Primarch
Your math looks to be very good there. You've hit most of the relevant factors. Just to expand a little. (As a note, I'm using a spreadsheet file to do the actual math. I'm good at math, but I'm also lazy...)
I'm assuming here that both sides are on Advance for the first turn, and the Revenant moves first so as to be within 100cm of the Land Raiders, but not within 75cm. Not particularly smart of it, but let's see how it goes.
A Revenant does have an attack out to 100cm, so it's possible that it might destroy a couple of Land Raiders before they are in weapon range. At most, a normal barrage should only be able to hit two Land Raiders. As this weapon has a 0 TSM and a Land Raider has a 2+ save, there are two 1/6 chances to kill targets (approximately a 0.027778 or 2.78% chance). Thus if we are using three Land Raider Companies (30 models) vs one Revenant, statistically speaking there will be 29.16667 Land Raiders when they get into range (75cm).
Assuming all Land Raiders get into range at the same time (unlikely, but possible), we then have 58.333 (29.1667 * 2) shots against the Revenant to resolve. We can expect 19.444 (58.333 *0.333) to roll 5+. Since the Revenant was on Advance orders, it's Holo Field save is 3+, thus only 1/3 of those get through, or 6.48148 of them.
I'm going to assume that all of them are shooting at the Front arc and targeting the central Leg location as it is the safest shot since it has the most adjacent hit locations. Each scatter die has a 1/3 chance of scattering and thus a 2/3 chance of hitting the spot aimed at. Each scatter has a 5/8 chance to hit a location rather than missing though, thus we have to return 5/8 of 1/3 to the chance to hit. Thus (0.6333 *0.333 = 0.21, and 0.667 + 0.21 = 0.88), so each shot has a 0.88 chance to hit something per scatter die rolled. As two are rolled, this means that 4.962 shots hit something.
Most of the hits will impact a 2+ save. The only 1+ save that might be hit is on a scatter, thus 1/5 of 1/3 (0.2 * 0.333 = 0.06667). Thus 4.962 * 0.06667 = 0.33 shots hit the 1+ location and 4.63 hit 2+ locations. The Land Raider has a -2 TSM, so we have 4.63 saves at 4+ so 2.316 get through and 0.33 shots save at 3+ so 0.11 get through. Thus 2.426 hits that will destroy the titan on a 6, so 0.404 shots will destroy the Revenant the first turn.
So it's possible, just not likely.
I haven't played the game for probably near on 16 years now - and am currently painting my collection up - I have the models needed for this test though, so will hopefully give it a go soon.
