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| Xisor |
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:11 pm Posts: 515 |
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| Admiral d'Artagnan |
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Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 12:56 pm Posts: 238 |
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| rowanalpha |
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Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 6:31 am Posts: 88 |
No, they are the exact probabilities. Pick any of the numbers above and I will explain how I determined it mathematically. You'd be surprised at how luck plays a big factor like WB dice that roll a lot of 6s. |
Anyone who's dice roll 6 more than 16.6% of the time is a cheater.
I don't rely on probabilities because I've been bitten more times than I can count when I didn't get the numbers I needed at the time.
[/QUOTE]
Boy, if the laws of probabilty are out to get you that much, you'd better not get on an air plane any time soon.:p
You can't say that you "don't rely on probabilities" because you've had bad luck. That's simply as statistical possibilty. Does that mean splinter cannon's in 40k are broken? Because one time a splinter cannon killed my Chaplain and Emperor's Champ (both in artificer armour) in one salvo. By golly, someone get GW on the phone this minute so we can up their cost in the next edition. Oh, and hunter killer missiles have got to get the axe, because one time I blew up a Land Raider Crusader on the first turn of a game (6 to hit, 6 to glance, 6 on the crit table, and in a night fight no less). Thats a 15 point upgrade killing a 255 point tank! How can we stand such brokenness!
The problem is not that you get an higher than average number of sixes rolled against you, you just remember them more clearly. Think about it, which do you remember more often, the times that 2 dice out of six roll a 5+, or the time that last torpedo is missed but the turrets, hit the ship, caused a crit, which destroyed the ship, which exploded and took out the three cruisers around it and singlehandedly won you the game? I'm sure you remember the statistically improbable one simply because it was so rare and amazing.
The flaw is, your arguements are all conditionals, "what if x happens." But arguing in conditionals will just result in a shouting match in the end because both of us can make up conditionals until we are blue in the face and still not prove anything.
You still also have not commented on the overcosting of the Barge. That is also a fact.
Actually, that is not a fact, that is your opinion. My opinion, conversely, is that the barge is costed exactly what it should be because against the most numerous weapon system in the game, Battlebarges are incredible resilient.
If this is how the SMs really fare in space combat in the 40k world, they would have been exterminated even before 1,000 years had passed.
I will grant that the attrition rate is higher than would make them feasible as the fluff dictates, but the same is true in 40K. Say you play a 2000 point game and have, what? 100 marines on the board? At the end of the fight, you've lost anywhere from a third to two-thirds of your force (assuming no body got massacared) so 30 or 60 marines out of a chapter of 1000. 10 battles like that and the chapter will be at half strength, and with neophytes taking a couple of centuries to become full battle brothers, they're going to be waiting a bit for reinforcements. But then if you made marines the uber powerful wargods that the fluff describes, they'd be the "action hero marines" from WD 300 (p 130) that cost 100 points each and you still need your opponents permission to take them.
To Xisor:
In those examples, thats for the first point of damage. After that, everything else comes quicker for marines. With Necrons, that is the stats to do 1 Point of Damage at any given time, it doesn't change after knocking down the shields.
You make an excellent point. However, it is not necessarily true that the remaining damage comes quicker for marines. For weapons batteries, Marines take a point for every six dice after its shields are down, where imperials will take a point every three. With lances, either will take a point for every two lances fired.
Now necrons create an interesting situation, and if d'Artagnan has bad luck with the laws of probability, the he should stay as far away from Necrons as possible.
Going back to what I calculated earlier, a tombship will suffer a point of damage for every 12 weapons batteries fired at it, and a barge takes its first hit with 24 dice and one every 6 thereafter. Here's a breakdown:
Dice Tombship Damage Barge Damage
6 .5 hull damage 1 shield
12 1 hull damage 2 shield
18 1.5 hull damage 3 shield
24 2 hull damage 1 hull damage
30 2.5 hull damage 2 hull damage
36 3 hull damage 3 hull damage
42 3.5 hull damage 4 hull damage
48 4 hull damage 5 hull damage
To destroy a Barge(in one turn): 90 dice
To destroy a Tombship: 144 dice
Now of course a ship can't suffer half a point of damage, but I included that for completeness. From this, we can see that up to 36 points of battery fire, the barge will suffer less damage, where the tombship's save begins to make up afterwards.
But, consider which is more likely to happen: (a) 90 dice of battery fire be brought on a target in one turn, or (b) 144 dice of fire be brought against a target over a game. The thing is, each extra turn adds 18 dice to the number of dice that need to be fired at the barge (because the shield regenerate), where the tombship doesn't get the advantage of "free hits", if you will, each turn.
_________________
The Construction Worker Space Marines like to paint Yellow and Black Stripes on Everything. This is for Safety. They also like to Blow Up Stuff. This is for Unsafety. They are very complicated people. This is why they are very (x2) popular. ? Sneak Preview of Construction Worker Space Marines
| Admiral d'Artagnan |
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Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 12:56 pm Posts: 238 |
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| Xisor |
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:11 pm Posts: 515 |
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| rowanalpha |
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Joined: Thu Dec 01, 2005 6:31 am Posts: 88 |
Not if you understand probabilities. The exact probabilities are the odds that something will happen. It is true that there will be variation (you're massed ones and sixes you mentioned), but in a large sample the numbers will equalize to that ratio (1 in 6 batteries hitting a barge). I'm curious, exactly how much probability and statistical math have you studied? I don't have a master in statistics or anything, but I have taken several courses at the highschool and college level, so I have a fair understanding of how to calculate probabilities. This is the questionable part in your argument. You automatically assume the probabilities work. Sorry, in my experience, they don't. The number of dice rolled as I said is to small over a single game. |
But the flaw in your arguement is that you are not understanding that in the long run, over the course of a series of games, the dice will balance out. Try this: the next few games you play, each time you roll a dice tally the number that comes up and after about 250-300 rolls the results should normalize at 16.6% each, plus or minus a statistically insignificant margin for error.
Mathematics is nice but statistics isn't really an exact science. Just because someone can get a good run of 6s doesn't automatically mean he's cheating. Just as the opposite of what happens, rolling a lot of 1s. It happens, especially at the most inopportune times.
Actually, math is the most exact science, because it relies entirely on logic. Now it is true that someone who has a run of 6s isn't necessarily cheating, but if a die rolls a statistically significant percentage more than 16.6% 6s, then it is weighted to land on six and the person is a cheater.
Once again, it seems like it happens at the in opprotune times because those are the ones you remember. I'd wager you have great recollections of things that went amazingly well or horribly wrong for you (not just gaming but in your life anywhere) and have almost no memory of things going along averagely. This is skewing your perceptions because you're remembering all of the 1s and 6s, but not the 2s-5s.
Two of us have done the math using an unofficial formula, true, but accurate enough for the other fleets and even the SC but for some reason is inaccurate with the barge.
And how do you know your unofficial formula is correct? What is it based on? Is it the same formula GW used to cost the barge? Because the game designers based the points costs on their playtesting experiences, not a mathematical formula.
The problem is, with only two ships in their fleet, there is not enough data for an accurate formula for the SM fleet to be derived (as opposed to imperal for instance that has enough datapoints to extrapolate point values). To determine a points formula for SM, you would have to have a very deep understanding of the probabilities in the game, and understanding several orders of magnitude above mine.
In the end, for all of its strategy and tactics, this game is based on dice rolls. Understanding that requires an understanding of probabilities, and if you do not understand the probabilities involved then you should not try to argue about what is balanced.
And, seriously, track your dice rolls over the next few games and see what actually happens.
_________________
The Construction Worker Space Marines like to paint Yellow and Black Stripes on Everything. This is for Safety. They also like to Blow Up Stuff. This is for Unsafety. They are very complicated people. This is why they are very (x2) popular. ? Sneak Preview of Construction Worker Space Marines
| Xisor |
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Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2005 10:11 pm Posts: 515 |
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| Admiral d'Artagnan |
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Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 12:56 pm Posts: 238 |
I am not questoning your probabilities. The numbers are probably (there is that word again) correct. However, your assumption that they automatically work in a game is not. But the flaw in your arguement is that you are not understanding that in the long run, over the course of a series of games, the dice will balance out. ?Try this: the next few games you play, each time you roll a dice tally the number that comes up and after about 250-300 rolls the results should normalize at 16.6% each, plus or minus a statistically insignificant margin for error. |
But I don't care about the long run. I care about the game I am in right now because after 6 turns, the game is decided already.
Actually, math is the most exact science, because it relies entirely on logic. ?Now it is true that someone who has a run of 6s isn't necessarily cheating, ?but if a die rolls a statistically significant percentage more than 16.6% 6s, then it is weighted to land on six and the person is a cheater.
I said math is nice but statistics is not exact science. Statistics, not math. I know math is exact but statistics just gives you the chance in a range for an event to occur. It doesn't mean it will occur.
Once again, it seems like it happens at the in opprotune times because those are the ones you remember. I'd wager you have great recollections of things that went amazingly well or horribly wrong for you (not just gaming but in your life anywhere) and have almost no memory of things going along averagely. ?This is skewing your perceptions because you're remembering all of the 1s and 6s, but not the 2s-5s.
Because in this game, the ones you really remember are the ones that succeed or not. The others don't matter. ?Don't you get it? So fine let's assume the guy who rolls 6s may have something cooking. What about the opposite? What about the guy who fails a 3+ save for 6 of his 9 troops in one roll?
And how do you know your unofficial formula is correct? ?What is it based on? ?Is it the same formula GW used to cost the barge? ?Because the game designers based the points costs on their playtesting experiences, not a mathematical formula.
Because it works for the other races. It even works for the Strike Cruiser. It does not work for the Barge. I already told you this.
The problem is, with only two ships in their fleet, there is not enough data for an accurate formula for the SM fleet to be derived (as opposed to imperal for instance that has enough datapoints to extrapolate point values). ?To determine a points formula for SM, you would have to have a very deep understanding of the probabilities in the game, and understanding several orders of magnitude above mine.
No. The problem is with only 2 ships, the SMs really are in the can. As for cost, why would I be constained to figure out the points? You use the other ships to base the cost from. It's not like it's using different armor or weapons.
For the SC, take a Dauntless give it 6+ armor, add 2 squadrons of AC and replace lances with the slightly inefficient BC. Then add 1 turret. How hard can it be to calculate?
For the Barge, take a Ret, lower the broadside ranges to 45, lower the shield and turrets to 3, reduce torps to 6, replace the lances with BC, add 3 squadrons of AC and increase the armor to 6. Again how hard can it be to calculate? Do you really think the Barge should cost 77 points more than the Ret based on the above changes?
In the end, for all of its strategy and tactics, this game is based on dice rolls. ?Understanding that requires an understanding of probabilities, and if you do not understand the probabilities involved then you should not try to argue about what is balanced.
In the end, dice is affected by factors other than dice rolls. Luck, fate, the gods making a joke on you, waking up on the wrong side of bed, it being a Monday, whatever. Unless you understand that probabilities are not the all and be all of games like this and that it is just a tool that aids, don't try to argue about what is balanced. In checking for balance, it's simple: how many times does a race win a game or not.
And, seriously, track your dice rolls over the next few games and see what actually happens.
And not enjoy the game? Really, play the game, enjoy it. Figure out your tactics. Have FUN. To heck with statistics. After the end of the game, I'd rather be talking to my opponent over drinks of what a nice game it was, what a nice maneuver he did and vice versa. And if anything about odds should come up, its how lucky I or he was to get that last hit that decided the game.[/quote]
Not if you understand probabilities. ?The exact probabilities are the odds that something will happen. ?It is true that there will be variation (you're massed ones and sixes you mentioned), but in a large sample the numbers will equalize to that ratio (1 in 6 batteries hitting a barge).
Exactly those are the chances it will happen. However, there is also the chance that it will not happen. So how can it be exact?
I'm curious, exactly how much probability and statistical math have you studied? I don't have a master in statistics or anything, but I have taken several courses at the highschool and college level, so I have a fair understanding of how to calculate probabilities.
I am not questoning your probabilities. The numbers are probably (there is that word again) correct. However, your assumption that they automatically work in a game is not.
But the flaw in your arguement is that you are not understanding that in the long run, over the course of a series of games, the dice will balance out. ?Try this: the next few games you play, each time you roll a dice tally the number that comes up and after about 250-300 rolls the results should normalize at 16.6% each, plus or minus a statistically insignificant margin for error.
But I don't care about the long run. I care about the game I am in right now because after 6 turns, the game is decided already.
Actually, math is the most exact science, because it relies entirely on logic. ?Now it is true that someone who has a run of 6s isn't necessarily cheating, ?but if a die rolls a statistically significant percentage more than 16.6% 6s, then it is weighted to land on six and the person is a cheater.
I said math is nice but statistics is not exact science. Statistics, not math. I know math is exact but statistics just gives you the chance in a range for an event to occur. It doesn't mean it will occur.
Once again, it seems like it happens at the in opprotune times because those are the ones you remember. I'd wager you have great recollections of things that went amazingly well or horribly wrong for you (not just gaming but in your life anywhere) and have almost no memory of things going along averagely. ?This is skewing your perceptions because you're remembering all of the 1s and 6s, but not the 2s-5s.
Because in this game, the ones you really remember are the ones that succeed or not. The others don't matter. ?Don't you get it? So fine let's assume the guy who rolls 6s may have something cooking. What about the opposite? What about the guy who fails a 3+ save for 6 of his 9 troops in one roll?
And how do you know your unofficial formula is correct? ?What is it based on? ?Is it the same formula GW used to cost the barge? ?Because the game designers based the points costs on their playtesting experiences, not a mathematical formula.
Because it works for the other races. It even works for the Strike Cruiser. It does not work for the Barge. I already told you this.
The problem is, with only two ships in their fleet, there is not enough data for an accurate formula for the SM fleet to be derived (as opposed to imperal for instance that has enough datapoints to extrapolate point values). ?To determine a points formula for SM, you would have to have a very deep understanding of the probabilities in the game, and understanding several orders of magnitude above mine.
No. The problem is with only 2 ships, the SMs really are in the can. As for cost, why would I be constained to figure out the points? You use the other ships to base the cost from. It's not like it's using different armor or weapons.
For the SC, take a Dauntless give it 6+ armor, add 2 squadrons of AC and replace lances with the slightly inefficient BC. Then add 1 turret. How hard can it be to calculate?
For the Barge, take a Ret, lower the broadside ranges to 45, lower the shield and turrets to 3, reduce torps to 6, replace the lances with BC, add 3 squadrons of AC and increase the armor to 6. Again how hard can it be to calculate? Do you really think the Barge should cost 77 points more than the Ret based on the above changes?
In the end, for all of its strategy and tactics, this game is based on dice rolls. ?Understanding that requires an understanding of probabilities, and if you do not understand the probabilities involved then you should not try to argue about what is balanced.
In the end, dice is affected by factors other than dice rolls. Luck, fate, the gods making a joke on you, waking up on the wrong side of bed, it being a Monday, whatever. Unless you understand that probabilities are not the all and be all of games like this and that it is just a tool that aids, don't try to argue about what is balanced. In checking for balance, it's simple: how many times does a race win a game or not.
And, seriously, track your dice rolls over the next few games and see what actually happens.
And not enjoy the game? Really, play the game, enjoy it. Figure out your tactics. Have FUN. To heck with statistics. After the end of the game, I'd rather be talking to my opponent over drinks of what a nice game it was, what a nice maneuver he did and vice versa. And if anything about odds should come up, its how lucky I or he was to get that last hit that decided the game.
| blackhorizon |
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Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:40 pm Posts: 2842 Location: Netherlands |
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| Xisor |
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| blackhorizon |
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Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2005 9:40 pm Posts: 2842 Location: Netherlands |
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| Admiral d'Artagnan |
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Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 12:56 pm Posts: 238 |
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