As promised, I've done some math on the NDC proposal.
ReviewThe basic idea here is to compare the damage output of the Baneblade to a similar unit in the list and whose formation is regarded as worth taking. In this case we're comparing a Baneblade Company to a Leman Russ Company (swapping one Leman Russ for a Leman Russ Vanquisher). In my experience, the Leman Russ Company is fun to field, scary to face, synergizes well with the rest of the list, and doesn't draw any criticism for being over- or under-powered. It's also got the same 4+ RA as the Baneblade, the same CC and FF per DC, and a similar ranged weapons loadout, all of which make the comparison easier. We'll also compare a single Baneblade to the Leman Russ Tank Squadron upgrade just for kicks.
For each case, I calculated the percent chance of doing a given number of hits. Hits are then weighted by point value to give a % chance of scoring a given number of hits per point.
I also adjusted the point value of each formation by subtracting the cost of a "naked" activation. This helps make the comparison fair between the single Baneblade formation and the Leman Russ Tank Platoon upgrade.
A full description of the methodology and the results comparing the proposed Baneblade cannon changes from the first test thread can be found
here. In those charts, I estimated the value of an activation at 25 points.
New StuffI've repeated the same calculations here for three cases:
Baneblade Platoon/Baneblade Co. with no changes
2x AP3/AT3 Baneblade cannon (the original proposed change)
Baneblade Platoon -25 pts, Baneblade Company -75 pts (the NDC Proposal)
My comparisons again are the Leman Russ Tank Squadron and the Leman Russ Tank Company with one Vanquisher.
I'm not going to show the charts again unless requested, because I think there's a more compact way to compare the "quality" of the changes. For each test case I'm calculating what I'm calling Normalized Damage:
Quote:
Normalized Damage = Sum( (Test Case Normalized Hits) * (Test Case % chance to hit) ) / Sum( (Control Case Normalized Hits) * (Control Case % chance to hit) )
As an example, check out this plot:
To get the Normalized Damage in Firefight for the Baneblade Company, you move along the blue line (Baneblade Co) and multiply the weighted number of hits (x axis) times the chance of doing that many hits (y axis) and add it all up. The better your changes are of doing a high number of hits per point, the higher this number will be.
Do the same math for the orange line (Leman Russ Co) and then divide. Now you have a ratio - if the Normalized Damage is greater than 1, the Baneblade Co will probably do more damage than the Leman Russ Co. If the Normalized Damage is less than 1, it's the opposite.
ResultsNow that I've explained how I did my dodgy math, here are the results for the test cases we're looking at. I normalized the damage for each test case against the Leman Russ control groups. I also ran the numbers for three different "naked" activation point values, from 0 to 50 pts, because I'm sure people will quibble over what should be subtracted.
Point for point, the Baneblade compares pretty well to the Leman Russ in Close Combat and Firefight and within 30cm range even without making changes. Both the 2x Shots change and the Point Drop improve the damage output significantly compared to the Leman Russ controls at less than 30cm. Both options are putting out 10% to 20% more AT damage and 30%+ more AP damage at close range.
As we move up through the range bands, the Point Drop looks less and less attractive. Dropping the points basically helps maintain some parity with the Leman Russ at AP and keeps the tank from absolutely stinking at AT (although the Point Drop case still stinks beyond 45 cm). Meanwhile the 2 Shot variant is kicking butt at 31-45cm AP and is dead even with the Leman Russ at 31-45cm AT and at everything beyond 45cm.
ConclusionsI think the NDC Point Drop proposal has some merit. Probably the only thing the Baneblade has in its favor versus the Leman Russ right now is the overall cost: you can currently buy a Baneblade Company for 150 points cheaper than a Leman Russ company. Sure it's crap, but it's durable and it lets you fit more into your list (and it's even more durable now point-for-point).
The problem here is that the Point Drop takes a sort of crappy unit and makes it cheaper. You're still slow, and you still have very poor damage output at long range even after you normalize based on points. The cheaper Baneblade Company does not stack up well to the Leman Russ Company as a breakthrough unit, but with a new total cost of 425 points, I think you might take it as a Blitz Guard.
Meanwhile the 2 Shot proposal still seems worth considering. Point-for-point you can deal the same damage or more as a Russ Company, and if we combine this with the proposed Crit change I think durability is no longer an issue either. These are more precisely targeted changes - we're improving the specific things the Baneblade is bad at.
However, neither of these proposals address all the issues. You're still slow enough that you'll have some trouble bringing your deadly short range shooting to bear, and you won't be able to keep up with your mechanized units. Additionally, if you add a Hydra, it can potentially be sniped away.
One final note to make is that while making the formation cheaper does help make the Baneblade Co. more attractive, it also starts to box you in. If you want to fix the long range damage issue or tamp down on the Crit effect, do you need to increase the price? How cheap is too cheap for 9 DC worth of 4+ RA? I feel like you start boxing yourself into the problems the AMTL lists have (slow, very tough WE that can't deal sufficient damage to make up their points).