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Points Formula Hit Location template generation

 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2015 7:21 pm 
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MagnusIlluminus wrote:
Yeah, I haven't had any significant time to continue this for the last few days. Once I finish typing up and posting the results of V0.32 & V0.325, I'll start looking at this again. I'm not planning on using the averaging method you mentioned above, as that is factored into how many empty squares are adjacent to any given location. At least, I feel that it is.

My comment on NE6 was slightly misplaced. At the least, it should have been a different paragraph. I said that, because, at the time, several people were / are pushing for NE6 to be made in certain ways that I don't care much for. I guess I should not be surprised at that, as I've often found that my opinions on things tend to be in a minority group. Well, as Primarch often says, my opinion does not outweigh that of everyone else. If the majority want things a certain way, then it should be that way, even if I feel it is wrong.


Hi!

It takes some getting used to Magnus, but when when our "side" is not in the majority, its not that bad.

It means you get to rant about it when it inevitably goes wrong. ;)

Primarch

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 6:49 pm 
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How many hits do people find that it takes to take out a Titan or Praetorian? Not including taking down Shields, just the actual model itself. Obviously, it can happen with one hit, but I'm assuming that is an exceptional case.

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Tue May 26, 2015 7:47 pm 
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MagnusIlluminus wrote:
How many hits do people find that it takes to take out a Titan or Praetorian? Not including taking down Shields, just the actual model itself. Obviously, it can happen with one hit, but I'm assuming that is an exceptional case.


Hi!

You've read my mind, I've been thinking on that particular points for a couple of weeks now.

The way I approach it is to figure what is the average weapon TSM usied to engage a titan.

In my experience players don't shoot at titan with weapons of TSM 0 or -1 (only if no other option is open).

Therefore this leaves the spread of -2 to -6. Weapons of TSM of -5 or better are very rare, so most fall in the -2 to -4 category. Perhaps TSM -3 is a good value for an average.

Most high yield location are either armor saves of 1+ or 2+, thus with a -3 average that is a modified save of 4+ or 5+.

Once the armor save fails, the chance of a high enough roll to destroy it can be taken into account. The overwhelming majority of weapons have no penetration bonus, even some with high TSM. So an average there is tricky, but should be above "zero". Perhaps +1 penetration is an easy approximation.

Most high yield damage tables need 5 and 6's to destroy the unit, add in a +1 penetration and the chance is 4 in 6.

If we have between a 3 in 6 to 4 in 6 chance (3.5 in 6 average) of getting past the armor, then roughly a 3 in 6 change of rolling high enough to destroy the unit then:

3.5 in 6 x 3 in 6 = 10.5 in 36, roughly 1 in 3 chance of getting a hit that destroys the unit, so on average it would take at least 3 such hits for one to successfully eliminate the unit.

I think the answer would be 3 for titan, maybe closer to 4 for a praetorian since their damage tables are more favorable.

I hope I didn't make to many erroneous mathematical assumptions. :P

Primarch

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 4:20 am 
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You are probably safe with those assumptions. Well, most of them anyway. I'd agree that the "average" Penetration value for weapons with -1 TSM or higher would be above zero, but it would be a fractional value at best. There is just no way it could be as high as +1. It would also vary depending on location shot, whether it scattered, etc. I could work through the math, but I just don't want to just now.

I'll give this another day or so before I apply it to the formula, but most people seem to agree with 3 as an average.

Just in case it is not obvious, I'm going to be working this value into the formula for putting cost to Hit Location based models. I'll go into more details in a couple of days, once I work up a couple more models.

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 10:01 am 
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Matty_C wrote:
So a warlord titan is a unit with an armour save of 1.84, with each unsaved hit having a 19.5% chance of killing it. Or to put that another way, 5 wounds.

My take on it ;) 5 with a tsm of zero, less with better pen.

Hitting it with -1 tsm weapons will drop the odds of course, but they do that for every unit in the game, which is taken into account in the weapons costing. So is the pen bonus.
You don't have to get too tricky here IMO, the weapons hitting the titan should already be costed appropriately. Statistically it is just a model with x wounds and a save of y.

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 5:44 pm 
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Well, technically they do not have "Wounds" as that is a specific ability, though they often do take a few hits to take down.

I'm not adjusting the costs associated with the weapons in any way. As you said, their costs already incorporate modifiers for all of that.

In trying a few different values for things, I'm going to go with a value of 5 for "average number of hits to destroy" as the results from using that number look better (to me) and give more differentiation than using 3. In other words, the results from using 3 are all too close to each other in final value for my tastes. I'll post more details tomorrow.

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 7:39 pm 
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MagnusIlluminus wrote:
You are probably safe with those assumptions. Well, most of them anyway. I'd agree that the "average" Penetration value for weapons with -1 TSM or higher would be above zero, but it would be a fractional value at best. There is just no way it could be as high as +1. It would also vary depending on location shot, whether it scattered, etc. I could work through the math, but I just don't want to just now.

I'll give this another day or so before I apply it to the formula, but most people seem to agree with 3 as an average.

Just in case it is not obvious, I'm going to be working this value into the formula for putting cost to Hit Location based models. I'll go into more details in a couple of days, once I work up a couple more models.


Hi!

Agreed. The penetration bonus average is a lot closer to 0 than it is to +1. By how much I am not sure.

Looking forward to see how this value impacts the cost.

Primarch

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Wed May 27, 2015 9:01 pm 
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For interests sake(well I'm interested anyway :D ) and to possibly help fine tune things a little I worked out the warlord points based on a save of 1.84 and 5 (equivalent ;) ) wounds. I came up with 475 but wasn't 100% sure how to deal with morale (I just called it fearless), the 4+ psychic save from the void shields (I added the 15 points in), and the repair ability (I just ignored this).
So taking into account the fine tuning required from the modifiers I may have screwed up, the number is ballpark with the 523 in the last tweak. So I think the internal balance you have going on with your formula seems pretty good. If anything the number you have seems a little high, but I haven't taken misses on the template into account with mine, which would probably up the points by about 5 or 10%.

So in summary, looking good :)

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2015 4:03 am 
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OP updated with current iteration of the system. Sorry for taking so long getting this up, but I wanted to make it at least a little bit pretty.

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2015 5:58 pm 
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Magnus, you are doing The Emperor's work! keep it up!

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2015 8:14 pm 
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madmagician wrote:
Magnus, you are doing The Emperor's work! keep it up!


Hi!

Indeed he is! ;D

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2015 12:44 am 
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Finally got around to doing the Imperator. OP updated with a few new options and the points value for it.

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 Post subject: Re: Points Formula Hit Location template generation
PostPosted: Sun Jun 14, 2015 4:04 am 
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MagnusIlluminus wrote:
Finally got around to doing the Imperator. OP updated with a few new options and the points value for it.


Hi!

Cool!

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